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2025-09-19 08:47:42
[Major Brokerage Firms' Outlook After the Fed's Rate Cut: Most Expect Two More Cuts This Year, but Divergence Emerges] 1. After the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, market attention quickly shifted to the subsequent policy path. Currently, most major brokerages maintain their original forecast, predicting two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remainder of 2025. This consensus is based on continued slowing inflation and a gradually cooling economy. 2. Nomura Securities, KBW, and other institutions have joined the ranks of predicting another rate cut in October, further strengthening the market consensus for two more rate cuts this year. They point to weakening labor market momentum and signs of slowing economic growth as evidence for further rate cuts. 3. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference reinforced the possibility of further easing. He explicitly stated that the weak labor market has become the top concern of Fed policymakers. This signal is interpreted by the market as a key basis for further rate cuts and paves the way for more institutions to expect further policy easing. 4. However, divergence also exists. Bank of America Global Research and HSBC still maintain a relatively cautious stance, predicting that there will be no immediate interest rate cut at the next meeting, and there may only be one more rate cut this year. However, they also admit that if future employment data deteriorates significantly, the possibility of an October rate cut is increasing, showing their flexible attitude towards data dependence.
