The trend shows that gold is in the distribution stage, why is gold still bullish?
2025-09-19 21:49:18
Gold and silver prices saw a slight upward trend in early trading on Friday. As the week's trading drew to a close, overall market activity declined. However, the significant rise in the US dollar index and the continued rise in US Treasury yields in the second half of the week significantly suppressed the upward potential of the two precious metals today.
Global stock markets showed divergent performance overnight, with an overall weak performance. Major US stock indices opened slightly higher, suggesting a continued stable trend and the potential for the US stock market to approach historical highs.
The market focus will then be on the subsequent diplomatic actions of the US president and the US employment and inflation data to be released next week. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials will deliver intensive speeches next week, which will affect the market's subsequent pricing of US interest rates.
Meanwhile, at a joint press conference in Mexico, the leaders of Canada and Mexico stated that, given the risks posed by President Trump's tariff threats to the current trilateral trade agreement, the two countries will maintain close coordination ahead of the resumption of the trade agreement review with the United States next year. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum jointly announced the "New Canada-Mexico Action Plan," which aims to deepen bilateral trade cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture.
The two leaders pledged to "move forward together" and emphasized the strengths and value of the three-way cooperation inherent in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Carney stated, "Thanks to the collaborative efforts of Canada, Mexico, and the United States, North America has become a highly competitive benchmark region in the global economy."
Today's key external market conditions show that the US dollar index continued to rise, maintaining a strong operating posture, US crude oil prices fell slightly, currently trading around US$63.91 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained stable at 4.13%.
It is worth noting that there is no important economic data released in the market this Friday, so the disruptive effect of the data on the market will be temporarily relieved.
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a significant advantage in the overall recent technical pattern. For bulls, the next key upside objective is to push futures prices above the key resistance level of $3,800.00; while the next key downside objective for bears is to push prices below the important technical support level of $3,600.00.
Specifically, the first short-term resistance level refers to Thursday's high of $3,707.30, and further resistance level points to this week's high of $3,744.00; on the support side, the first support level focuses on this week's low of $3,660.50, and the subsequent support level can be seen at $3,650.00.
(December gold futures contract)
December silver futures bulls also hold a clear advantage in the overall near-term technical picture. The next upside objective for silver bulls is to push futures prices above and above the key technical resistance level of $45.00. The immediate downside objective for bears is to push prices below the important support level of $40.00. The first resistance level is the overnight high of $42.685, with further resistance at $43.00. The first support level is $42.00, with further support at this week's low of $41.48.
(December silver futures contract)
According to Wyckoff's trading strategy, gold futures may be in a phase where market makers are distributing their holdings. However, the largest market makers for the strong gold market are currently central banks. As long as the US and other major powers are in a standoff over trade and other areas, central banks are unlikely to distribute their gold holdings. While silver may halt its upward trend before gold due to the lack of central bank purchases, the silver leasing market suggests strong industrial demand for the metal, which may be a better indicator of its performance.
At 21:41 Beijing time, the December silver futures contract is currently trading at 42.31/32, and the December gold futures contract is currently trading at 3688.2/3.
Global stock markets showed divergent performance overnight, with an overall weak performance. Major US stock indices opened slightly higher, suggesting a continued stable trend and the potential for the US stock market to approach historical highs.
The market focus will then be on the subsequent diplomatic actions of the US president and the US employment and inflation data to be released next week. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials will deliver intensive speeches next week, which will affect the market's subsequent pricing of US interest rates.
Meanwhile, at a joint press conference in Mexico, the leaders of Canada and Mexico stated that, given the risks posed by President Trump's tariff threats to the current trilateral trade agreement, the two countries will maintain close coordination ahead of the resumption of the trade agreement review with the United States next year. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum jointly announced the "New Canada-Mexico Action Plan," which aims to deepen bilateral trade cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture.
The two leaders pledged to "move forward together" and emphasized the strengths and value of the three-way cooperation inherent in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Carney stated, "Thanks to the collaborative efforts of Canada, Mexico, and the United States, North America has become a highly competitive benchmark region in the global economy."
Today's key external market conditions show that the US dollar index continued to rise, maintaining a strong operating posture, US crude oil prices fell slightly, currently trading around US$63.91 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained stable at 4.13%.
It is worth noting that there is no important economic data released in the market this Friday, so the disruptive effect of the data on the market will be temporarily relieved.
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a significant advantage in the overall recent technical pattern. For bulls, the next key upside objective is to push futures prices above the key resistance level of $3,800.00; while the next key downside objective for bears is to push prices below the important technical support level of $3,600.00.
Specifically, the first short-term resistance level refers to Thursday's high of $3,707.30, and further resistance level points to this week's high of $3,744.00; on the support side, the first support level focuses on this week's low of $3,660.50, and the subsequent support level can be seen at $3,650.00.
(December gold futures contract)
December silver futures bulls also hold a clear advantage in the overall near-term technical picture. The next upside objective for silver bulls is to push futures prices above and above the key technical resistance level of $45.00. The immediate downside objective for bears is to push prices below the important support level of $40.00. The first resistance level is the overnight high of $42.685, with further resistance at $43.00. The first support level is $42.00, with further support at this week's low of $41.48.
(December silver futures contract)
According to Wyckoff's trading strategy, gold futures may be in a phase where market makers are distributing their holdings. However, the largest market makers for the strong gold market are currently central banks. As long as the US and other major powers are in a standoff over trade and other areas, central banks are unlikely to distribute their gold holdings. While silver may halt its upward trend before gold due to the lack of central bank purchases, the silver leasing market suggests strong industrial demand for the metal, which may be a better indicator of its performance.
At 21:41 Beijing time, the December silver futures contract is currently trading at 42.31/32, and the December gold futures contract is currently trading at 3688.2/3.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
