Gold prices fell slightly in early U.S. trading on Tuesday (September 30), while silver prices fell more sharply. Following Monday's record highs for gold and 14-year highs for silver, short-term futures traders were taking regular profits. However, the potential for a U.S. government shutdown limited the declines for both precious metals. As of the latest data, December gold futures (currently trading approximately $30 above spot gold) were down $12.40 at $3,842.00, while December silver futures were down $0.631 at $46.375.



The US federal government is heading towards a midnight shutdown, with Democrats and Republicans apparently still unable to reach a consensus on funding for the federal government, with each side blaming the other for the impasse. Bloomberg noted, "With just hours left before the midnight deadline, the spending impasse could paralyze many aspects of US government operations. This would be the 14th government shutdown in modern history, preventing Americans from accessing some services and hindering the payment of federal government salaries. It could have broad political implications for President Trump and the Democratic Party ahead of next year's crucial midterm elections. While last-minute spending deals have averted shutdowns in recent years, the current situation presents a particularly significant risk: the White House is threatening to lay off some employees rather than furlough them, while Democratic leaders are facing intense pressure from progressive factions within their own party to stand firm against Trump." This situation has sparked a degree of uncertainty and concern in the market, which has benefited the safe-haven gold and silver markets.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indices are expected to open lower when the New York trading day begins. Today is the last trading day of the month and quarter, making it an especially important day from a technical perspective.

The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in September from 50.5 in August, exceeding expectations for 50.3 and reaching its highest reading since March. A reading above 50.0 typically indicates expansion. New order growth reached a seven-month high, and exports returned to expansionary territory. Furthermore, official Chinese data showed that the contraction in manufacturing activity narrowed to its smallest level in six months, driven by growing expectations of a new round of government support measures ahead of the October plenary session.

Key external market data today showed that the US dollar index fell slightly; crude oil prices fell, trading around $63.00 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently 4.13%.

U.S. economic data due for release today includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P CoreLogic home price index, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM), and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).


(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)

From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a clear overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside objective is pushing futures prices above key resistance at $3,000.00. Bears' immediate downside objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $3,700.00. First resistance is seen at $3,875.00, followed by this week's high of $3,899.20. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,820.60, while further support lies at $3,800.00.

December silver futures bulls also have a clear overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing futures prices above key technical resistance at $50.00. Bears' immediate downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key support at $44.00. First resistance is seen at $47.00, followed by this week's high of $47.41. First support is seen at the overnight low of $45.96, while further support lies at $45.00.