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2025-10-04 14:28:18
[Institution: After Sanae Takaichi was elected, the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in October has weakened] Naoya Hasegawa, head of bond strategy at Okada Securities, said that the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates later this month has weakened. The market will make an initial reaction to the results of the LDP presidential election by buying medium-term bonds and selling ultra-long-term bonds, which will lead to a steeper yield curve. Previously, the market expected the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% (in October) to be over 60%, but it is expected that the probability will fall below 50% next week. The recent increase in market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates is because the market expected Shinjiro Koizumi to be elected and Bank of Japan member Asahi Noguchi sent a hawkish signal.
