The US dollar rebounded sharply, driving USD/CHF to a new high this month
2025-10-10 13:45:13
In late Asian trading on Friday, the US dollar continued to rise against the Swiss franc the previous day, running steadily around 0.8070, close to the monthly high set on Thursday.
The US dollar remains strong. Although expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to rise, the market's risk-averse demand and the resilience of US macroeconomic data still provide support for the US dollar.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining two monetary policy meetings this year, with a probability of 81.5%.
Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have further reinforced market expectations of easing. New York Fed President John Williams said: "Businesses are becoming more cautious in hiring, and the job market faces downside risks, which means the Fed needs to support economic activity through further interest rate cuts."
At the same time, several Fed members emphasized that despite rising labor market risks, consumer inflation expectations remain solid, supporting a moderate path of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index (DXY) currently remains near 99.50, a two-month high, indicating that the overall strength of the US dollar remains unabated.
In Switzerland, rising inflation expectations are causing the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reconsider its monetary policy direction. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently stated that he expects inflation to pick up in the coming quarters, so there is no reason to push interest rates back into negative territory.
This statement has stabilized the Swiss franc's downward space to a certain extent, but it is difficult to reverse the trend dominated by the US dollar.
Looking at the daily chart, USD/CHF has formed a solid upward channel after breaking through the 0.8030 resistance level and is currently consolidating around 0.8070. The RSI indicator remains above 60, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant.
If the exchange rate continues to hold the 0.8050 support zone, upside targets are expected to be 0.8100 and 0.8140. A short-term correction below 0.8030 could trigger some profit-taking pressure. The overall trend remains bullish.
Market analysts' views: "Even as expectations of a Fed rate cut grow, USD/CHF remains strong, reflecting investors' concerns about global economic uncertainty. While the Swiss franc has safe-haven properties, the current cautious stance of Switzerland's monetary policy has weakened its appeal."
Editor's opinion:
The current USD/CHF trend is supported by both fundamentals and sentiment. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not diminished the dollar's appeal; instead, rising global risk sentiment has strengthened its safe-haven status.
While the Swiss National Bank's decision to avoid restarting negative interest rates has helped limit the Swiss franc's decline, the overall trend remains dominated by the US dollar. In the short term, if US consumer confidence data is solid, USD/CHF may break through the 0.8100 mark and continue its monthly upward trend.
The US dollar remains strong. Although expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to rise, the market's risk-averse demand and the resilience of US macroeconomic data still provide support for the US dollar.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining two monetary policy meetings this year, with a probability of 81.5%.Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have further reinforced market expectations of easing. New York Fed President John Williams said: "Businesses are becoming more cautious in hiring, and the job market faces downside risks, which means the Fed needs to support economic activity through further interest rate cuts."
At the same time, several Fed members emphasized that despite rising labor market risks, consumer inflation expectations remain solid, supporting a moderate path of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index (DXY) currently remains near 99.50, a two-month high, indicating that the overall strength of the US dollar remains unabated.
In Switzerland, rising inflation expectations are causing the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reconsider its monetary policy direction. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently stated that he expects inflation to pick up in the coming quarters, so there is no reason to push interest rates back into negative territory.
This statement has stabilized the Swiss franc's downward space to a certain extent, but it is difficult to reverse the trend dominated by the US dollar.
Looking at the daily chart, USD/CHF has formed a solid upward channel after breaking through the 0.8030 resistance level and is currently consolidating around 0.8070. The RSI indicator remains above 60, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant.
If the exchange rate continues to hold the 0.8050 support zone, upside targets are expected to be 0.8100 and 0.8140. A short-term correction below 0.8030 could trigger some profit-taking pressure. The overall trend remains bullish.
Market analysts' views: "Even as expectations of a Fed rate cut grow, USD/CHF remains strong, reflecting investors' concerns about global economic uncertainty. While the Swiss franc has safe-haven properties, the current cautious stance of Switzerland's monetary policy has weakened its appeal."
Editor's opinion:
The current USD/CHF trend is supported by both fundamentals and sentiment. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not diminished the dollar's appeal; instead, rising global risk sentiment has strengthened its safe-haven status.
While the Swiss National Bank's decision to avoid restarting negative interest rates has helped limit the Swiss franc's decline, the overall trend remains dominated by the US dollar. In the short term, if US consumer confidence data is solid, USD/CHF may break through the 0.8100 mark and continue its monthly upward trend.
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