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October 16th Financial Breakfast: Trade tensions + interest rate cut expectations push gold prices close to 4220, and the US and Israel once again threaten Hamas to disarm.

2025-10-16 07:31:27

In the early Asian session on Thursday (October 16, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $4,210.94 an ounce. Gold prices rose above the $4,200 an ounce mark on Wednesday, reaching a high of $4,218.14 an ounce, as rising interest rate cut bets and geopolitical unease led investors to flock to safe-haven metals; U.S. crude oil traded around $58.18 a barrel, and oil price gains were limited by escalating trade tensions and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of oversupply in 2026.

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Focus on the day



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Several Federal Reserve officials spoke, and Bank of England monetary policy committee member Mann also delivered a speech.

stock market


The S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America rising on solid quarterly results, while investors remained focused on the recent increase in trade tensions.

Morgan Stanley shares jumped 4.7 percent to a record high, while Bank of America shares rose 4.4 percent after both big banks reported third-quarter profits that beat Wall Street expectations on strong trading.

The S&P 500 banking index rose 1.2%, its first three-day winning streak in more than three weeks, a day after Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reported solid performance in their investment banks and predicted the business would continue to thrive.

This week’s bank results suggest strength from major U.S. companies as the third-quarter earnings season gets underway, and they are also providing clues to the health of the economy at a time when many macroeconomic reports have been put on hold due to the government shutdown.

"People are spending, and the consumer seems fine," said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. "That's one of the things that came out of the bank reports. Employment hasn't dropped like a rock. Inflation and employment are both within reasonable ranges."

ASML reported third-quarter orders and revenue that exceeded market expectations, buoyed by booming investment in artificial intelligence. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3%. ASML's U.S. shares rose 2.7%.

An investment consortium including BlackRock, Microsoft, and Nvidia will acquire one of the world's largest data center operators for $40 billion. Data center company shares rose, with Applied Digital shares surging. The S&P 500 rose 0.40% to 6,671.06. The Nasdaq rose 0.66% to 22,670.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04% to 46,253.31.

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by real estate, which gained 1.5%, followed by utilities, which rose 1.29%.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively high, with 21.5 billion shares changing hands, compared with the 20.4 billion average for the previous 20 trading days.

Bessant said he plans to present three or four candidates for Fed chairman to Trump for interviews sometime after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Fed Governor Milan said at a CNBC event that "two more rate cuts this year sounds realistic," noting that labor market slack has become apparent. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also left the door open to a rate cut on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve said in its latest Beige Book report, which covers the period ending October 6, that some employers reported cutting jobs due to economic uncertainty and, in some cases, increased investment in artificial intelligence. The report also showed tight labor supply in the hospitality, agriculture, construction and manufacturing sectors due to the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration.

Gold Market


Gold prices extended their record rally on Wednesday, surpassing $4,200 an ounce for the first time, as growing bets on interest rate cuts and geopolitical jitters sent investors flocking to the safe-haven metal.

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Spot gold hit $4,218.14 on Wednesday, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 0.9% at $4,201.60.

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said the metal has been surging and doesn't look like it wants to stop, and with trade tensions reignited in the past few days, investors have more reason to hedge their long bets on stocks by diversifying into gold.

Gold has surged more than 60% this year, driven by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, bets on rate cuts, central bank buying, de-dollarization and strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

"It's only $800 away from $5,000, and I wouldn't bet against gold eventually reaching that level," Razaqzada said.

The dollar fell against a basket of currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered dovish comments on Tuesday, saying the U.S. labor market remained mired in a "low hiring, low hiring slump."

Traders are pricing in a 98% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and subsequently pricing in a 100% probability of another cut in December.

Silver climbed 2.3% to $52.64, having hit a record high of $53.60 on Tuesday. Elsewhere, platinum climbed 0.6% to $1,647.55, while palladium fell 0.2% to $1,523.66.

Oil Market


Oil prices limited gains on Wednesday, pressured by escalating trade tensions and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of a supply glut by 2026.

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Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to settle at $61.91 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 0.7% to $58.27. Both benchmarks settled at their lowest levels since May 7 for the second consecutive day.

Brent oil prices could fall below $50 a barrel if trade tensions escalate and OPEC+ production increases, Bank of America said.

The world's two largest oil consumers renewed their trade war last week with tit-for-tat moves over port fees that could disrupt global shipping.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Wednesday that renewed trade tensions pose a "substantial" downside risk to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate. Loose economic policies can boost economic growth and oil demand.

Data from the Chicago Federal Reserve showed that U.S. retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts probably increased further in September, although some of the increase may reflect rising prices.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday that the global oil market could face a larger surplus of as much as 4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year as OPEC+ producers and rivals boost output while demand remains sluggish.

foreign exchange market



The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday as lingering trade tensions dampened market sentiment. Traders parsed a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for clues on possible future interest rate cuts amid the U.S. government shutdown, which has impacted the timely release of key data.

The dollar fell 0.39% against the yen to 151.24 yen and 0.49% against the Swiss franc to 0.797 Swiss franc. "The market has shown an impressive ability to remain unaffected by trade-related headlines, and there is a general belief that a path forward will be found and a trade deal will be reached," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive, said: "The headlines remain inflammatory, including the comments from Bessant and Greer, but the market saw that Trump quickly de-escalated the situation over the weekend and is not yet convinced that he really wants to start a trade war."

The dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.72, falling for the second consecutive trading day. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity has remained almost unchanged recently, with employment generally stable, but there are signs of weakness such as increased layoffs and spending cuts by middle- and low-income households.

In his speech on Tuesday, Powell said the U.S. labor market is still in a stagnant state of "low hiring and low layoffs," and did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts. He pointed out that although the government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, at least there is still enough public and private information for policymakers to assess the economic outlook.

Markets are currently betting the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its Oct. 28-29 meeting and again at its December meeting, with three more rate cuts expected next year, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1.6 basis points to 4.038%. U.S. stocks closed mostly higher as companies continued to report strong earnings. The euro rose 0.35% against the dollar to $1.1646, having risen 0.3% in the previous session, helped by the French government's proposal to suspend landmark pension reforms.

TS Lombard analyst Daniel von Ahlen wrote in an investor report that although the political turmoil in France has begun to ease, the euro still lacks obvious positive factors. At the same time, the recent performance of EUR/USD is comparable to the rebound momentum after the euro zone announced a number of policies, which further strengthens our strategic caution on the euro.

The New Zealand dollar edged up just 0.1% to $0.5721, having fallen to a six-month low of $0.56839 in the previous session. The Australian dollar rose 0.39% to $0.651, having fallen 0.5% in the previous session to $0.64405, its lowest since August 22.

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International News


Hungarian Prime Minister: Without the EU's instigation, Russia and Ukraine might have achieved peace long ago

In an interview with Hungarian media on the 15th, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that if the EU had not instigated Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, peace might have already been achieved between Russia and Ukraine. However, European leaders want to perpetuate the conflict and are working to sway US President Trump to support its continuation. Orban also reiterated his opposition to Ukraine's EU membership, stating that Ukraine's EU membership would bring war to the bloc and take away a significant amount of EU funds. Orban also stated that before the upcoming EU summit next week, he wants to clarify with Russia whether Russia's countermeasures to the EU's use of frozen Russian assets would include freezing the assets of Hungarian companies. He stated that if Hungarian companies face the possibility of Russian retaliation, he will not support the EU's use of frozen Russian assets. (CCTV News)

Trump says Zelensky will explain his "attack" on Russia during his visit

On October 15th, local time, US President Trump stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will explain the rationale for an "offensive" against Russia during his visit to the White House later this week. Trump stated that Ukraine "wants to attack." Zelensky is reportedly urging European countries to purchase more advanced, longer-range Tomahawk missiles from the United States, which could then be transferred to Ukraine. Zelensky is also seeking additional Patriot air defense systems as part of a new initiative to turn the tide of the war. Trump has yet to commit to either measure. (CCTV News)

The US and Israel once again threaten Hamas to disarm, and the stalemate between the parties may continue

On October 15th, local time, the U.S. Middle East Command called on the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to disarm immediately. On the same day, U.S. President Trump also stated that if Hamas did not comply with the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli army might resume fighting in the Gaza Strip "at his command." On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Katz also issued a statement stating that Israel would cooperate with international forces to destroy Hamas tunnels and infrastructure. Katz urged Hamas to hand over all Israeli personnel (including remains) and disarm. He warned that if Hamas refused to implement the Gaza ceasefire agreement, Israel and the United States would resume combat operations against Hamas. Hamas has not yet responded to this. (CCTV News)

Trump confirms authorization of CIA operations in Venezuela

On the 15th local time, US President Trump stated that the US will definitely consider launching a land-based operation to strike drug cartels and confirmed that it has authorized the CIA to conduct operations in Venezuela. Previously, media reports stated that the US government had secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela. This new authorization allows the CIA to conduct lethal covert operations alone or in conjunction with the US military, which is also currently preparing for potential attacks in Venezuela. (CCTV News)

U.S. judge temporarily blocks federal government from firing workers during shutdown

A US judge has ordered the Trump administration to halt plans to lay off thousands of federal employees during the government shutdown. US District Judge Susan Illston in San Francisco issued the ruling on Wednesday. More than 4,100 federal employees have received layoff notices since last week. The order is not a final ruling on the merits of the case. It means that the two dozen federal agencies named in the lawsuit are prohibited from issuing new layoff notices if they involve projects in which members of the union that filed the lawsuit worked. The ruling means the government must suspend action on the notices already issued while the judge weighs whether to impose a longer-term injunction.

In response to government budget cuts, several US states have formed a bipartisan "public health alliance"

On October 15th, local time, the governors of 15 U.S. states and territories announced the formation of a bipartisan "Public Health Coalition" to strengthen emergency coordination, vaccine policy, and health security cooperation. Massachusetts Governor Healey stated that the states will work together to ensure residents have access to necessary medical services. The governors warned that the Trump administration's budget cuts are threatening the public health system. The "Public Health Coalition" is primarily composed of Democratic-controlled states and territories, including California, New York, Illinois, Washington, and Guam.

Yuichiro Tamaki is expected to become a candidate for prime minister

According to Japanese media reports, Japan originally planned to convene a special session of the Diet on October 21st to select Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's successor, but the opposition parties rejected the proposal, citing ongoing inter-party consultations. The ruling and opposition parties will continue discussions on the timing of the prime ministerial election. LDP President Sanae Takaichi met with three opposition party leaders on the afternoon of October 15th. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan advocates for a swift change of government and is positive about supporting Yuichiro Tamaki as a unified candidate. The Democratic Party for the People emphasizes that cooperation will only be based on consensus on fundamental positions on the constitution, foreign policy, and security policy. The Restoration Party prefers a flexible coalition centered on "policy consensus." Whether the three parties can reach a consensus will directly determine the outcome of the prime ministerial election. (CCTV International News)

Domestic News


China's e-commerce logistics index for September continues to hit a new high this year

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today released its September China E-commerce Logistics Index. The index continued to rise month-over-month, reaching a new high for the year. The index reached 112.7 points in September, up 0.4 points from the previous month, setting a new high for the year. The total e-commerce logistics business volume index reached 132.5 points in September, up 1.1 points from the previous month. By region, all regions except the eastern region saw an increase, with the central region seeing the largest increase, with the total e-commerce logistics business volume index rising 3.5 points from the previous month. (CCTV News)
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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4238.10

30.14

(0.72%)

XAG

53.053

0.094

(0.18%)

CONC

58.36

0.52

(0.90%)

OILC

62.45

0.05

(0.08%)

USD

98.583

-0.071

(-0.07%)

EURUSD

1.1657

0.0010

(0.09%)

GBPUSD

1.3415

0.0014

(0.10%)

USDCNH

7.1292

0.0025

(0.04%)

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