October 28th Financial Breakfast: Thawing trade tensions weaken safe-haven demand, gold prices fall below $4,000, OPEC production increase plan limits oil price gains
2025-10-28 07:33:28

Focus on the day

stock market
Wall Street's major indexes closed at record highs for a second straight day on Monday as investors were optimistic about the prospects for a trade deal and looked forward to earnings reports from several large technology companies this week and an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said Bessant's comments reinforced market expectations of easing tensions.
Five of the so-called tech giants — Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta — report earnings later this week that will test the durability of the rally, which has been fueled by optimism about growth and capital spending related to artificial intelligence (AI).
“Five of the tech giants will report earnings this week, and the market will want to hear that AI capital spending is materializing and that related revenue and profits are materializing,” Wren said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.71% to 47,544.59 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.23% to 6,875.16 points, closing above 6,800 points for the first time; and the Nasdaq rose 1.86% to 23,637.46 points.
Three of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 saw strong gains. The communications services sector rose 2.3%, with Alphabet surging 3.6%. The technology sector rose 2%, reaching a record closing high, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.7%.
Qualcomm surged 11%, the biggest tech gainer, after the company unveiled two AI chips for data centers that are expected to be commercialized next year. Nvidia, the leading AI chipmaker, rose 2.8%, contributing the most to the S&P 500.
The consumer discretionary sector rose 1.5%, with Tesla rising 4.3% on optimism about trade negotiations. However, Christopher Brown, vice president of Synovus Private Wealth Management, said that even if a best-case trade deal is reached, Tesla's valuation remains high and the rally may be unsustainable.
The consumer staples sector fell 0.27%, while the materials sector fell 0.25%. Shares of U.S.-listed rare earth miners retreated as the prospect of a trade deal eased concerns about supply disruptions. Critical Metals closed down 13.7%, NioCorp Developments fell 11.5%, and Ramaco Resources dropped 2.6%.
Chinese stocks listed in the US generally rose, with Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo rising between 2.7% and 3%, and Baidu rising 4.8%.
Data released last week showed cooling inflation, and the market is almost fully betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of some key data has been delayed, and investors will closely monitor the comments of Fed Chairman Powell to determine whether there will be another rate cut in December.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell below $4,000 an ounce on Monday as signs of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions dented the metal's safe-haven appeal while market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.

Spot gold was trading at $4,002.29 an ounce, down 2.7%. It fell to $3,970.81 an ounce in early trading, its lowest since October 10. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 2.9% to $4,019.70.
"A potential trade deal would suggest some reduction in demand for safe-haven assets like gold," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, said that in addition to technical selling, gold "has further to fall as trade tensions have subsided."
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Wednesday.
Spot silver fell 3.6% to $46.85 an ounce; platinum fell 0.4% to $1,592.03; and palladium fell 1.8% to $1,402.98.
Oil Market
Oil prices settled slightly lower on Monday as OPEC's plan to increase production again overshadowed hopes for a framework for a trade deal and the impact of reimposed U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures settled down about 0.5% at $65.62 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 fell 0.3% to $61.31. Both contracts were down about 1% in early trading.
OPEC+ countries are leaning towards another small increase in oil output in December at a meeting on Sunday, four sources familiar with the talks said, as Saudi Arabia strives to regain market share.
"Crude oil futures are taking a breather from last week's sharp gains as trade tensions de-escalate and hopefully resolve most of their differences," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial in New York.
Concerns about sluggish demand had weighed on the market, sending Brent crude to its lowest since May earlier this month, but renewed U.S. sanctions on Russia and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand have helped boost prices.
OPEC and its allies changed course this year, reversing earlier production cuts to regain market share, which has helped to keep a lid on prices.
foreign exchange market
The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and Australian dollar on Monday as optimism about a possible trade deal boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the greenback. Currency markets were generally subdued as traders awaited several key central bank meetings this week.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said the market is a bit euphoric, noting strong gains in global equities and a decline in gold. Chandler said the market is encouraged by three major developments: "The trade situation has eased, with the U.S. reaching foreign trade agreements or cooperation frameworks with some East Asian countries, and Milley performing better in Argentina."
Argentine President Mille's party won a comfortable victory in mid-term legislative elections, with voters giving him a mandate to continue pushing forward with economic reforms.
The dollar index fell 0.11% in late trading to 98.84; the euro rose 0.15% to $1.1643.
Central bank actions are likely to dictate market direction later this week, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are likely to keep rates unchanged on Thursday.
With a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve already a done deal, markets will be watching closely for any signs that the central bank may be preparing to end its quantitative tightening program.
The Australian dollar was last up 0.63% at $0.6554. The relatively hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia governor also boosted the Australian dollar.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Andrew Bullock said on Monday that a 0.9% rise in core inflation in the third quarter would be a "significant deviation" from forecasts and the board would have to take that into account when deciding whether to cut interest rates next week.
Traders were also focused on Tuesday's meeting between Trump and Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where the two leaders will discuss trade. The yen has weakened in recent weeks due to concerns that Takaichi will implement more expansionary fiscal policy. The dollar was roughly flat against the yen at 152.92 yen.
Investors are further watching for any signs on when the U.S. federal government will reopen, as they expect the longer the shutdown, the bigger the hit to the U.S. economy.
Air traffic controller absences have surged as the federal government shutdown enters its 27th day. Air travel turmoil has intensified, with more than 2,700 flights delayed nationwide on Monday and more than 8,600 on Sunday.
International News
Hungarian Prime Minister: Russian-US presidential meeting will definitely be held in Budapest
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated on October 27th local time that although the meeting between the Russian and US presidents, originally scheduled for Budapest, has been postponed, it will definitely take place there. Negotiations are still ongoing. Orban also stated that if peace can be achieved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy prices will fall. He said that Hungary must fight to continue importing Russian oil and gas. (CCTV News)
Mexico's president says U.S. agrees to extend trade talks
On October 27th, local time, Mexican President Seinbaum announced that US President Trump had agreed to extend the deadline for the two countries to reach an agreement on trade, security, and immigration. Seinbaum stated that she and Trump had a very brief and friendly call last week, during which both sides agreed that their officials would continue their work and that Trump would not impose additional tariffs. She stated that both sides agreed that progress was going very well and agreed to continue dialogue in the coming weeks to reach an agreement. (CCTV News)
Venezuela's Attorney General: US seeks to overthrow Venezuelan government
The United States has recently increased its deployment of warships and troops in the Caribbean and conducted joint military exercises, drawing strong condemnation from Venezuela. In an interview, Venezuela's Attorney General stated that the United States is attempting to overthrow the Venezuelan government. In an interview, Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab stated that the United States is undoubtedly attempting to overthrow the Venezuelan government and effect regime change. He also accused the United States of attempting to plunder Venezuela's natural resources, including gold, oil, and copper. Regarding the possibility of a US ground invasion of Venezuela, Saab stated that such an event should not occur, but Venezuela is prepared for such an eventuality. He added that the US's so-called crackdown on drug trafficking is not legitimate, but that Venezuela remains willing to resume dialogue with the United States. (CCTV News)
Trump may replace Federal Reserve chairman by the end of 2025
Trump may replace the Federal Reserve Chair by the end of 2025, even though Powell's term runs until 2026. Powell's resistance to significant interest rate cuts stands in stark contrast to Trump's economic goals. The September 25 basis point rate cut and unease within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have further exacerbated tensions. Market fluctuations of 1%-2% are possible, similar to past market reactions to Fed-related changes.
The 9th Saudi Future Investment Initiative Conference focuses on creating new areas of economic growth
The ninth annual Saudi Arabian Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference opened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on the 27th. Themed "Keys to Prosperity: Opening New Frontiers for Growth," participants will engage in in-depth discussions on investment strategies and innovative solutions to drive sustainable growth in today's complex global landscape. The conference will feature a series of special sessions addressing topics such as the impact of artificial intelligence and robotics on productivity, the geoeconomic impact of resource scarcity, the changing global workforce, and strategies for balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. The FII is the largest international investment and innovation forum in the Middle East. The four-day conference attracted over 8,000 delegates from various countries and regions, with approximately 650 political and business leaders expected to speak. (Xinhua News Agency)
Trump doesn't want to meet with Canadian PM for 'a long time'
On October 27th, local time, when asked whether he planned to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea, US President Trump said, "I don't want to meet with him, and I won't be meeting with him for a very long time." Trump and Carney reportedly both attended the ASEAN meeting in Malaysia, but did not meet. Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated in Kuala Lumpur on the 27th that he had not spoken with Trump since he announced the end of negotiations with Canada on the 23rd. Carney stated that he remained prepared to talk to Trump and that Canada was ready to sit down and talk at any time. Canada-US trade negotiations had made considerable progress. However, if the US is not prepared to resume negotiations, Canada will continue to build its domestic economy and develop diversified partnerships.
Domestic News
CSRC: Optimize transaction settlement and facilitate investment operations . Improve fund transfer and verification efficiency. Within the existing legal and regulatory framework, guide custodians and securities firms to optimize service quality and operational efficiency, shorten the time required for fund transfer, account entry, and confirmation, and further enhance the efficiency of intermediary institutions' verification of funds received during trading days. Improve securities account operational efficiency. To better meet the demands of asset management institutions for optimized transaction execution and fair treatment of product investors, provide technical support such as one-time collection and transfer for foreign investors using "Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor - Client Funds" securities accounts, and simultaneously strengthen the transparent reporting requirements for these accounts. Actively explore and respond to reasonable requests from foreign investors, such as the appropriate expansion of securities transfer circumstances. Enhance transparency in investment operation regulatory requirements. Revise the "Regulations on Issues Concerning the Implementation of the Measures for the Administration of Domestic Securities and Futures Investment by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors" to implement measures to improve account operational efficiency and optimize the management of cross-border investment models, thereby enhancing the transparency and predictability of policy rules.
He Lifeng attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting and delivered a speech
The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting opened in Beijing on the 27th. He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony and delivered a speech. Yin Li, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee, also attended the opening ceremony. He Lifeng noted that under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, the financial sector has achieved remarkable results during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The 15th Five-Year Plan is a critical period for China to achieve basic socialist modernization and will also be a crucial period for promoting high-quality financial development and accelerating the development of a financial powerhouse. The financial system must participate in the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan with high quality, translate the strategic directions and major measures determined by the CPC Central Committee into concrete actions, unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, relentlessly promote risk prevention, strengthen supervision, promote high-quality development, and steadily advance higher-level opening up in the financial sector. The financial system must fully support the completion of the main goals and tasks of the 15th Five-Year Plan and contribute more to comprehensively promoting China's development and national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernization. He Lifeng emphasized that the world is undergoing a period of rapid change unseen in a century, and global financial markets are facing both challenges and opportunities. China is willing to work with all parties to actively participate in global financial governance research, steadily promote new progress in global financial governance reform, and contribute Chinese wisdom and strength to maintaining a fair and just international economic and financial order and promoting stable development of global finance. He Lifeng pointed out that Beijing has a profound economic and financial foundation and will actively support Beijing in building on its strategic positioning as a "four-center city," further optimizing its financial development ecosystem, deepening financial reform and opening up, and promoting high-quality financial development in the capital. (Xinhua News Agency)
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