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October 29th Financial Breakfast: The safe-haven appeal has weakened significantly, with gold prices falling below 3900 to a three-week low, and oil prices falling for three consecutive trading days.

2025-10-29 07:25:54

On Wednesday (October 29, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3,950 an ounce. Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as hopes of progress in trade negotiations weakened gold's safe-haven appeal, while investors' attention turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week; U.S. crude oil traded around $60.24 a barrel. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Tuesday as investors assessed the impact of U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies on global supply and OPEC+'s possible plan to increase production in December.

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Focus on the day



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stock market


U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with all three major indexes closing at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34% to 47,706.37 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.23% to 6,890.89 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 23,827.49 points.

The market rally was primarily driven by major news in the field of artificial intelligence: Nvidia announced it will build seven AI supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy and disclosed that its AI chip orders have reached $500 billion. As a result, Nvidia's stock price surged 5%, adding over $230 billion to its market capitalization in a single day, bringing it one step closer to becoming the first company with a market capitalization of $5 trillion.

The technology sector performed strongly overall. Microsoft rose 2% after reaching a new agreement with OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, to acquire a 27% stake. Apple's market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time during the session, though its gains narrowed to 0.1% at the close. The market is closely watching this week's quarterly earnings reports from tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, particularly details on their investments in artificial intelligence.

On a macro level, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday. Due to the delay in the release of key economic data caused by the US government shutdown, the market is relying on private sector data to gauge the economic outlook. The latest ADP report shows continued modest growth in US private employment, but news of layoffs at companies like Amazon has dampened market optimism. Meanwhile, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 10.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating previous expectations and providing fundamental support for the stock market rally.

Gold Market


Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as hopes for progress in trade talks dented the metal's safe-haven appeal while investor attention turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.

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Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,964.35 an ounce, having hit its lowest level since October 6. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to settle at $3,983.1 an ounce.

Gold, a traditional hedge and non-yielding asset in uncertain times, has rallied more than 51% this year, supported by geopolitical and trade tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.

"A certain degree of easing in trade tensions is indeed a downside for safe-haven metals," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions fueled optimism in global markets, with major Wall Street stock indexes hitting record highs at the open on Tuesday.

Investors are also focused on the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. The market widely expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, the outlook for gold remains uncertain, with some analysts predicting prices will continue to rise, while others remain cautious.

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) forecast at its annual meeting that gold prices would rise to $4,980 an ounce over the next 12 months, while Citigroup and Capital Economics both cut their gold price forecasts on Monday.

Spot silver rose 0.7% to $47.21 an ounce, having hit its lowest since Sept. 26. Platinum was flat at $1,589.87 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.1% to $1,401.63 an ounce.

Oil Market


Oil prices fell more than 2% on Tuesday, extending their decline to a third straight session, as investors assessed the impact of U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies on global supplies and plans by OPEC+ to increase production in December.

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Brent crude futures settled down 1.9% at $64.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 1.9% to $60.15 a barrel.

Last week, both Brent and U.S. crude oil futures recorded their biggest weekly gains since June, as U.S. President Trump imposed sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term over the Ukraine crisis, targeting companies including Lukoil and Rosneft.

Germany's economy minister said the U.S. government had provided written assurances that Rosneft's operations in Germany would not be affected by sanctions because the assets were no longer under Russian control. "Trump's exemption for Germany gave the impression that there might be wiggle room in these sanctions, and therefore eased market concerns that a significant tightening of supply might follow," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures. "We did see some risk-off trading today."

The impact of sanctions on oil exporters will be limited as there is still spare production capacity globally, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Tuesday.

Indian refiners have not placed new orders for Russian crude oil since the sanctions were imposed and are still awaiting further guidance from the government and suppliers, sources said.

Four sources familiar with the negotiations said that OPEC and its allies, including Russia, are inclined to make another small production increase in December. The organization has previously limited production for several years to support the oil market and began phasing out production cuts in April of this year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said the OPEC+ production increase could help offset reduced Russian crude supply caused by U.S. sanctions.

foreign exchange market


The yen rebounded against the dollar on Tuesday from a seven-day losing streak after comments from Japanese Finance Minister and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter eased some concerns about further expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in Japan.

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Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Minoru Jonouchi stated that Japan can enhance its long-term growth potential by stimulating demand, maintaining a tight labor market, and adhering to the necessity of fiscal discipline. Jonouchi also indicated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of currency movements on the Japanese economy.

"This is helping to improve sentiment in the Japanese government bond market and the yen," said James Lord, head of foreign exchange and emerging market strategy at Morgan Stanley. "I think foreign investors, in particular, believe that the Sanae Takaichi administration could be a little more stimulative in terms of fiscal policy. These comments today are leaning in the other direction, on the one hand, that there might not be as much fiscal stimulus, and on the other hand, that the government is sensitive to yen movements."

The yen was further supported by Bessant's emphasis on the importance of "developing a prudent monetary policy".

"Bessant made it clear he preferred to use conventional policy tools like rate hikes rather than FX intervention, which led to a decline in USD/JPY," said Kamal Sharma, senior FX strategist at Bank of America.

The comments, made during a meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, are the latest criticism of the Bank of Japan's slow pace of interest rate hikes. "This is being interpreted by the market as potentially encouraging the Bank of Japan to raise rates," said Morgan Stanley's Lord. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold interest rates steady at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Thursday, but the focus will be on whether it will provide clues on the timing of the next rate hike. The yen was last up 0.44% at 152.18 against the dollar.

The European Central Bank is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve may cut rates on Wednesday.

The dollar fluctuated sharply against the euro on Tuesday following the release of several U.S. economic data. The dollar rose after preliminary weekly estimates from the ADP National Employment Report showed that private-sector U.S. companies added an average of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 11.

However, the dollar subsequently fell as World Economy reported that U.S. consumer confidence weakened in October due to household concerns about job availability in the next six months and continued price increases caused by import tariffs.

The dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.69 in late trading, while the euro rose 0.14% to $1.1659. The euro also hit its highest level against the pound since May 2023, while the pound fell to its lowest point against the dollar since August 1.

Britain's budget watchdog is expected to cut a key productivity forecast by 0.3 percentage points, potentially hitting public finances by 20 billion pounds ($26.8 billion).

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but Morgan Stanley holds a divergent view, believing the central bank will keep rates unchanged. "We think they are likely to skip a rate cut this time, mainly because the data was better than expected. Therefore, we are bearish on USD/CAD." The Canadian dollar rose 0.34% against the US dollar to 1.39 Canadian dollars.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk appetite, rose 0.46% to $0.6586, its highest since Oct. 9, as trade tensions eased.

International News


U.S. Senate Minority Leader: Government shutdown may last until November

On October 28 local time, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that the U.S. federal government shutdown could continue into November, at which point millions will face expiration of their Affordable Care Act tax credits and high Medicare costs. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have been furloughed, others are working without pay, and federal food assistance is also nearing its end.

Global foreign exchange markets brace for the arrival of "Super Central Bank Week"

This week, global financial markets are witnessing a "super central bank week." The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will all announce their interest rate decisions on October 30th (Beijing time). The market widely expects the three central banks to diverge: the Fed is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates. This difference in monetary policy is becoming a key factor influencing the direction of global foreign exchange markets.

The US government's large-scale layoffs during the shutdown have been suspended

On October 28th, a federal judge further blocked the Trump administration's plan to lay off thousands of federal employees during the nearly month-long partial government shutdown. At a hearing in San Francisco, U.S. District Judge Susan Illston extended a temporary ruling that barred nearly 40 federal agencies from implementing layoffs pending the outcome of a legal case filed by unions representing federal employees. Previously, on October 15th, a federal judge in San Francisco ordered the Trump administration to halt layoffs for now during the shutdown.

Government shutdown leads to suspension of food aid, and several states file lawsuits

On October 28, a coalition of Democratic-led states filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent the Trump administration from suspending food assistance benefits starting November 1st during the ongoing government shutdown. Attorneys general and governors from 25 states and the District of Columbia filed the lawsuit in federal court in Boston after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it would not use $6 billion in emergency funds to pay for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (also known as food stamps), which provides food assistance to over 41 million low-income Americans.

U.S. House Speaker Johnson pours cold water on Trump's 2028 run

House Speaker Mike Johnson poured cold water on Trump's talk of seeking a third term, saying the U.S. Constitution's presidential term limits would prevent him from running again. "I don't see where that's going," the House Republican leader said. "I think the president is aware of that, and he and I have discussed the constitutional limits." Despite the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibiting more than two terms as president, Trump has repeatedly hinted at a third term. Johnson said he "doesn't see" a chance of passing a new amendment to remove that limit, and believes it would take "a decade" for a constitutional amendment to gain two-thirds support in both the House and Senate and be ratified by three-quarters of the states.

Gaza Strip Media Office: Israeli army violates ceasefire agreement about 125 times since truce

The Gaza Strip Media Office stated on the 28th local time that since the Gaza ceasefire agreement came into effect, Israel has violated the agreement approximately 125 times, resulting in at least 94 deaths and 344 injuries. These violations include: shooting at civilians, airstrikes or fire attacks, crossing the "yellow line" into residential areas, bombing of civilian buildings, and arrests of civilians in various areas. The statement called on the United States and the guarantors and mediators of the agreement to fulfill their responsibilities, put pressure on Israel, and urge it to stop violating the agreement. The statement also called for the accelerated opening of border crossings, the resumption of entry of humanitarian aid trucks, the admission of medicines and medical supplies, the reopening of the Rafah crossing to transfer the wounded for treatment abroad, and the delivery of temporary resettlement supplies to Gaza for the winter. (CCTV News)

Apple enters $4 trillion market capitalization club

On Tuesday, Apple's market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time, becoming the third major tech company to reach that milestone. Strong demand for its latest iPhone has eased concerns about its slow progress in the artificial intelligence race. Since the new iPhone's release on September 9th, Apple's stock price has risen about 13%, marking its first positive gain of the year. "The iPhone contributes more than half of Apple's profits and revenue," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. "The more phones they sell, the more users they bring into their ecosystem." Separately, OpenAI announced the completion of its long-awaited restructuring, pushing the market capitalization of its largest external shareholder, Microsoft (MSFT.O), back to $4 trillion, a milestone it briefly reached in late July.

Britain's political landscape is fractured, with Labour support plummeting to a record low in polls.

A YouGov poll shows that Keir Starmer's Labour Party has fallen to its lowest support rate on record, highlighting the growing threat to the ruling party from the rise of the Green Party on the left. According to the poll, released Tuesday, only 17% of Britons say they would vote for Labour if a general election were held tomorrow. Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform Party leads with 27%, while the Green Party has a record-high 16%. The Conservatives are tied with Labour at 17%, and the Liberal Democrats are at 15%. Five parties have achieved support of at least 15%, highlighting the increasingly fragmented political landscape in the UK. While Starmer will not have to call a new election until mid-2029, the poll clearly shows that Labour is under attack from all sides; the upcoming round of local elections in May is being described by some in the ruling party as potentially life-or-death for Starmer's leadership.

Domestic News


He Lifeng met with members of the International Advisory Committee of the Financial Regulatory Administration and pointed out that China will continue to expand high-level financial opening up.

He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with members of the International Advisory Committee of the Financial Regulatory Administration at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on the evening of the 28th. He briefed the Chinese and US economic and trade situation upon inquiry and stated that China is fully implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and, in accordance with the recommendations and arrangements of the 15th Five-Year Plan, is unwaveringly expanding high-level opening up in the financial sector and accelerating the development of a modern financial power. He welcomes more foreign financial institutions and long-term capital to invest and develop businesses in China and deepen cooperation with China. Members of the International Advisory Committee of the Financial Regulatory Administration expressed optimism about the prospects for China's economic and financial development and expressed their willingness to continue to deepen their presence in the Chinese market and expand investment and cooperation with China. (CCTV)
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