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2025-10-29 19:28:35
[Russian Crude Oil Exports Not Yet Hindered, New Sanctions May Have Lagging Effects] ⑴ New US and EU sanctions against Russian oil giants have not yet substantially affected physical crude oil shipments from the country's western ports. ⑵ October exports from western ports such as Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk are estimated at approximately 2.33 million barrels per day. ⑶ This figure is in line with Russia's revised monthly plan, despite weather restrictions and sanctions pressure. ⑷ The US-set November 21 deadline requires the termination of all transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil. ⑸ The approximately four-week voyage from Baltic ports to Indian refineries presents logistical and financial risks, and currently loaded cargoes will miss the deadline. ⑹ Indian refiners have not yet decided how to handle already purchased Russian oil, and major customers such as Reliance Industries are assessing the contract impact. ⑺ Payment issues may arise, with Russian sellers unwilling to accept rupee settlements, exacerbating transaction complexity. ⑻ The market expects Russian oil sales to shift towards intermediaries and trading companies, which will increase seller costs but buffer buyer risks.
