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2025-10-30 21:02:24
[German Inflation "False Alarm"? 2.3% Surprisingly Higher Than Expected, ECB Rate Cut Dreams Shattered] ⑴ The German Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday that the preliminary October CPI was +2.3% year-on-year, higher than the market forecast of +2.2%, and accelerated to +0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding the consensus of +0.2%. ⑵ The EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Price Index (HICP), released at the same time, also locked in +2.3% year-on-year and +0.3% month-on-month, both indicators exceeding expectations, causing inflation to hover above 2% for the third consecutive month this year. ⑶ A quick commentary from institutions pointed out that although the base effect of energy is waning, the service sector's strong month-on-month increase of 0.5% provides stubborn support for core inflation, and the market's previous bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in December has plummeted from 68% to 42%. ⑷ Swap curves show that the euro 3-year interest rate futures plunged 12 basis points in one minute, traders rushed to cover short positions, and the trading volume of European government bond futures surged to 2.7 times the 20-day average. (5) Technical analysts are closely watching the key support level of 1.0750. If the euro/dollar pair closes above this level on the daily chart, short-term short positions may be forced to cover. Sentiment indicators show that leveraged funds' net short positions have fallen to a three-week low, suggesting a potential breakout is imminent.
