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2025-10-30 21:45:39
[Gas Prices Hit Four-Month High: Expiry Short Squeeze + Record LNG Buying Spree Drives Bulls to 14% Jump] ⑴ The NYMEX December natural gas contract took its first day of trading on Thursday, rising another 1.6% to $3.876 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a jump of about 14% from Wednesday's November contract, the highest since June 18, and entering technical overbought territory for the first time in three weeks. ⑵ Federal Reserve Storage Forecasts indicate that the EIA may inject 73 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 24, higher than the five-year average of 67 billion cubic feet, but inventories are still only 5% higher than normal, and the supply buffer has not deteriorated significantly. ⑶ LSEG statistics show that average production in the 48 states fell to 107 billion cubic feet per day in October, shrinking from the record high of 108 billion cubic feet per day in August; during the same period, LNG feedstock exports rose to 16.5 billion cubic feet per day, breaking the record set before April, with both production cuts and rush exports tightening the spot market. (4) Weather models predict that the national average will be warmer than normal until November 14th, with heating temperatures 27 degrees Celsius lower than the 30-year average. Demand lacks a catalyst, but supply contraction and short covering due to contract rollover will dominate the market, resulting in the largest net inflow of funds since September. (5) Technically, the previous high of $3.93 has become the next key support/resistance level. If Friday's inventory report unexpectedly falls below 70 billion cubic feet, bulls may attempt to break through the psychological barrier of $4. Open interest in options shows a 28% surge in bullish positions at $3.90 within a week, increasing the risk of a gamma squeeze.
