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2025-10-30 22:03:34
[Lagarde's verbal "rate cut seal": Inflation anchored at 2%, tariff shadow lingers, euro surges to 1.16] ⑴ Lagarde confirmed at a press conference that "all underlying indicators point to 2% medium-term inflation" and stated that long-term expectations are "stable near the target." The market interpreted this as the dovish bottom line, and the euro instantly broke through 1.16 against the dollar, reversing its intraday decline by 0.3%. ⑵ She warned that eurozone goods exports had already declined due to tariff increases from March to August, new export orders continued to fall, and the "full impact" on manufacturing investment "still needs time to materialize." She also pointed out that manufacturing was dragged down by a "stronger euro," implying that currency appreciation has been incorporated into policy considerations. ⑶ Regarding domestic demand, Lagarde stated bluntly that "the divergence between domestic and external demand will continue in the short term." The gap between the services PMI (52.4) and the manufacturing PMI (45.2) widened to its widest in two years, and swap pricing reduced bets on a 2026 rate cut from 10 basis points to 6 basis points, further weakening dovish expectations. (4) The central bank also announced the start of the next phase of the "digital euro," ensuring technical readiness and allowing issuance once legislation is completed. The market interprets this as a long-term improvement in payment efficiency, but no impact on the short-term policy path. The German 2-year yield rose 2 basis points to 2.02%. (5) Technical charts show that the euro's break above 1.1600 triggered $170 million in quantitative buying, and options risk reversed to a two-week high. If core CPI does not decline on Friday, bulls may target 1.1650, exposing a dense area of short-selling stop-loss orders.
