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2025-10-31 18:29:31
[ECB Survey: Inflation Expectations Slightly Upward, Economic Growth Outlook Remains Fragile] ⑴ The ECB's fourth-quarter survey of professional forecasters shows that the overall HICP inflation expectation for 2025 has been revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%. ⑵ Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, with long-term inflation expectations remaining stable at the 2.0% target level. ⑶ Core inflation expectations have also been revised upward, with the HICPX expectation rising by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4% in 2025, and remaining unchanged at 2.0% in subsequent years. ⑷ Real GDP growth expectations for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%, remaining at 1.1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. ⑸ Trump's tariff rhetoric has had a negative impact on near-term economic growth expectations, but its direct impact on inflation is relatively limited. ⑹ The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 6.2% in 2027 and remaining there in the long term. (7) Interest rate path projections indicate that the deposit facility rate will fall to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026, subsequently gradually rising to 2.25% by 2030. (8) The euro/dollar exchange rate is projected to steadily appreciate from 1.18 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 1.20 in 2030. (9) Oil price projections have been slightly revised downwards, expected to remain in the $64-$68 per barrel range throughout the forecast period. (10) Nominal wage growth is projected to gradually slow from 4.5% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, and then stabilize at around 2.8% in the long term.
