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2025-10-31 20:45:00
[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Market optimism faded, and funds returned to fundamental trading logic. ⑵ Weaker-than-expected earnings reports from US tech stocks triggered a decline, with funds flowing back into gold ETFs, increasing holdings by 4.3 tons. ⑶ New York gold support is at $3940, and resistance is at $4070; domestic gold support is at 900 yuan, and resistance is at 926 yuan. ⑷ The support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 904-910 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 915-926 yuan. ⑸ Trading recommendations: Reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive buy-on-dips strategy. ⑹ The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's remarks were hawkish, stating that a December rate cut is "not a certainty." ⑺ Copper prices fell as a result, but domestic and international copper mine disturbances continued, with supply expected to be tight. ⑻ Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Shanghai copper still has support; maintain a buy-on-dips strategy. (9) Shanghai zinc prices retreated slightly due to hawkish comments, while LME inventory levels remained low. (10) Domestic social inventories decreased slightly but remained high, with export opportunities open and demand stable. (11) Fundamentals are gradually moving towards a tight balance, and Shanghai zinc prices may stabilize and fluctuate. (12) Overall alumina supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not eased. (13) The rebound is weak given high inventory levels; caution is advised when bottom-fishing. (14) Risks of mining disruptions should be guarded against before the Guinea elections. (15) Aluminum prices were suppressed by hawkish comments, but the overall macroeconomic environment is favorable. (16) Tight scrap aluminum supply and firm prices suggest continued high-level fluctuations in Shanghai aluminum. (17) The strategy is mainly to buy on dips, while lithium carbonate futures remain relatively strong. (18) Strong downstream demand supports prices, and the destocking trend continues. (19) However, the rise is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch, and the high supply pressure remains unchanged. (20) Excessive optimism about the upside potential of the market is not advisable; attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends.
