Spot silver turned lower before the close on Friday, after rising as high as $49.34 in the morning before its gains faded, a level slightly below the October 23 high of $49.46. This setback suggests that sellers are still pressuring the rebound, and the recovery from the $45.38 low this week appears more like a correction than a reversal. At 02:00 Beijing time on Saturday, spot silver was trading at $48.628, down 0.53%.



The resistance level held firm, but the bulls have not completely withdrawn.

Friday's rebound attempted to reach the short-term pullback range of $50.02-$51.07, which remains a key resistance level in the near term. With the short-term trend still downward, the market views this area as a selling zone, and the bearish bias will remain unless there is a clean break. However, the long-term trend still manages to hold an upward bias. The 50-day moving average at $45.38 provides support for the uptrend, and this level has now become a key dividing line for the market. Buyers are still appearing in this area, but buying confidence is not strong.

The market is caught in a volatile cycle due to the interplay of two trends.

The complexity of silver's daily chart lies in the divergence between short-term and long-term trends. This divergence creates a volatile trading environment: rallies are met with selling, pullbacks are met with cautious defense, but neither side has made a strong push. Silver will likely remain in a range-bound market rather than a clear trend until it breaks through the $51.07 resistance level or falls below the $45.43 support level. If it closes below the 50-day moving average, the next target will be the previous breakout level of $44.22. A break below this level could see silver fall to the long-term 50% retracement level of $41.40, a level that could ultimately force weak bulls out and reset the trend structure.

Outlook: Bearish bias maintained until a break above $51.07.


(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)

Unless silver breaks out of the $50.00-$51.07 range with significant volume, any rebound faces the risk of a pullback. The current market sentiment remains bearish, favoring selling on rallies; bulls need to demonstrate upward momentum. The 50-day moving average remains a key support level, but without a catalyst, it's unlikely to hold for long. Traders are currently bearish, reducing long positions near resistance levels and awaiting a breakout that will disrupt the current balance.

Summarize

The short-term trend remains downward. Unless the bulls can strongly break through $51.07, the sellers will continue to control the situation, and every rebound could become an opportunity for the shorts to re-enter the market. More information can be found in our economic calendar.