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2025-11-03 09:36:48
[USD/JPY Fluctuates at High Levels as Market Digests Fed Rate Cut Expectations] 1. During Monday's Asian session, USD/JPY fluctuated at high levels, currently trading around 154.10, not far from the over eight-month high of 154.44 reached last week. Although market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December remain, recent hawkish signals from several Fed officials have raised doubts among investors about the timing of the rate cut, providing some support for the dollar. 2. Data from the interest rate futures market shows that traders currently expect a 68% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, a significant drop from 93% a week ago. This change reflects a clear division within the Fed regarding whether to initiate a rate cut in December, weakening the previous one-sided market expectation of an imminent easing policy. 3. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent statements on future rate hikes have become more cautious, softening his hawkish stance and putting pressure on the yen. Although the Bank of Japan hinted at the possibility of a rate hike in the short term and stated that it would monitor wage growth and the yen's exchange rate to determine the timing, this expectation did not provide effective support for the yen. 4. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair faces resistance in the 154.40-45 range, while support levels are seen at 153.65 and 153.25-30. With the Japanese market closed for a holiday, the pair fluctuated between 153.95 and 154.24 during the Asian trading session. Market analysts believe that verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may temporarily slow the dollar's rise, but is unlikely to fundamentally reverse the current trend.
