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2025-11-03 18:01:25
[European Central Bank Official Issues Rare Warning: Over-Intervention Could Be a Source of Market Instability] ⑴ ECB policymaker Kazimir explicitly opposes fine-tuning monetary policy, emphasizing that excessive intervention could itself become a source of market volatility. ⑵ Current inflation risks are generally balanced, and there is no need for excessive policy responses to minor fluctuations deviating from the 2% target. ⑶ The central bank should maintain policy stability; the direction of the next policy adjustment will depend entirely on future economic signals. ⑷ Although inflation may fall below 2% next year due to the energy base effect, persistent upside risks must be monitored simultaneously. ⑸ Recent core inflation and wage data have exceeded expectations, indicating that policymakers cannot ignore the possibility of renewed price acceleration. ⑹ Financial market pricing indicates a near-zero probability of a rate cut in December and only about a 40% probability of a rate cut before mid-2026. ⑺ The trade agreement and easing of geopolitical conflicts have mitigated some downside risks to economic growth, providing room for policy observation.
