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2025-11-03 19:26:36
[Brazilian Economic Outlook: Inflation Gradually Declines, Real Exchange Rate Expected to Remain Stable] ⑴ According to the latest survey by the Central Bank of Brazil, economists have slightly revised their 2025 IPCA inflation forecast from 4.56% to 4.55%, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 4.20%. ⑵ The benchmark interest rate, Selic, is expected to remain at 15.00% by the end of 2025, but is projected to decline to 12.25% by the end of 2026, indicating a gradual easing of monetary policy. ⑶ Economic growth expectations remain stable, with GDP growth estimated at 2.16% in 2025 and slowing to 1.78% in 2026, reflecting a potential slowdown in the pace of economic expansion. ⑷ Regarding the exchange rate, the real is projected to be at 5.41 against the US dollar by the end of 2025 and 5.50 by the end of 2026, indicating that the market expects the currency to remain relatively stable but with a slight depreciation. ⑸ These forecasts are largely consistent with previous survey results, showing that analysts have reached a stable consensus on Brazil's macroeconomic outlook, and significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.
