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2025-11-03 20:52:23
[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Shows Divergent Trends] ⑴ In the crude oil market, after OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, it will suspend the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year. Given the unclear impact of Russian sanctions, the organization is adopting a strategic wait-and-see approach. With positive macroeconomic support, a short-term bullish strategy is recommended. ⑵ Fuel oil rebounded following crude oil, with expectations of reduced high-sulfur fuel oil supply due to continued sanctions against Russia by the US and Europe. With positive macroeconomic expectations, the downside is limited, and a short-term bullish strategy is maintained. ⑶ The glass market was driven by the "coal-to-gas" policy in the Shahe region. Four coal-fired production lines stopped feeding from November 2nd, affecting daily capacity by 2,400 tons. Supply contraction coupled with improved production and sales in the Shahe region, coupled with a double decline in supply and demand, showed resilience in the market. A slightly bullish oscillating strategy is recommended. ⑷ The soda ash market remained stable, with total manufacturer inventory at 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons month-on-month. The commissioning of the Alashan Phase II project may be delayed, and coal cost support is relatively strong. A slightly bullish oscillating strategy is recommended. (5) The caustic soda market remained weak, with prices in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces showing a slight downward trend. Supply remained ample, with no peak season restocking demand observed in non-aluminum industries. Coupled with expectations of alumina production cuts and high inventory pressure, the fundamentals showed no signs of improvement, and a short-selling strategy was maintained. (6) The methanol market broke down, with spot prices in Taicang falling by 55 yuan to 2102 yuan, and prices in Inner Mongolia North Line falling by 25 yuan to 1980 yuan. Port inventories remained high, with ample supply and weak downstream demand. Prices are expected to remain low, and a short-selling strategy was recommended.
