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2025-11-03 21:10:52
[SNB in a Wait-and-See Stance: Temporary Inflation Decline Fails to Shake Interest Rate Stability] ⑴ Pansen Macro Analysts point out that although Switzerland's October inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0.1%, the central bank's policymakers have clearly stated that they will not be affected by the single-month data and will maintain their policy stance. ⑵ SNB President Schlegel recently released hawkish signals, expecting inflation to resume its upward trend in the coming months, weakening the case for an immediate easing of monetary policy. ⑶ Analysts predict that the inflation rate may fall to -0.3% in February next year due to declining rent inflation and lower electricity prices, but the central bank's focus is on the medium-term inflation outlook rather than short-term fluctuations. ⑷ According to the central bank's latest guidance, it will only consider lowering the key interest rate into negative territory if medium-term inflation expectations remain persistently below zero by the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028. ⑸ Based on the above framework, the market expects the SNB to most likely hold rates steady in December and maintain the current interest rate level throughout 2026, forming an exceptionally long policy plateau.
