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2025-11-03 21:31:20
[US Government Shutdown Impacts Economic Barometers, Major Data Releases Disrupted] ⑴ The partial shutdown of the US federal government, which began on October 1st, has lasted for over a month, causing agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau to suspend the collection and release of the vast majority of economic data. ⑵ Key indicators directly affected include: the non-farm payroll report scheduled for November 7th, the Consumer Price Index for November 13th, and the Producer Price Index and retail sales data for November 14th, all of which have been confirmed to be postponed. ⑶ Private sector data releases are largely normal; the Manufacturing PMI for November 3rd, the ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November 5th, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November 7th will continue to provide market references. ⑷ This shutdown has created a significant information gap for policymakers and investors in assessing the health of the labor market, the inflation trajectory, and the strength of consumption and investment, increasing market uncertainty. (5) The data black hole continues to expand. In the four weeks leading up to November 20, more than 20 government statistics, including housing starts, industrial output, and trade data, will be forced to be suspended, with only a few reports, such as the Fed meeting minutes, being retained.
