Silver Outlook: Traders focus on ADP and Fed data for direction; prices trade within a range.
2025-11-04 01:25:18
On Monday (November 3), spot silver edged lower in the early part of the week, with prices fluctuating within the range of Friday's trading session. Traders remained cautious ahead of a week of "light but crucial" US economic data. Although silver prices held near key retracement levels, the lack of clear catalysts made it difficult for prices to break out into new upside potential.
Government data release delayed, market focus shifts to ADP report
With the US government shutdown entering its second month, markets are once again bracing for a delay in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly employment report, originally scheduled for release on Friday. This would be the second consecutive month that non-farm payroll (NFP) data has been absent, a key indicator of inflation and interest rate expectations. In this context, traders are expected to rely heavily on Wednesday's ADP private sector employment report, as well as the ISM manufacturing and services surveys, for guidance on market sentiment.
Other reports affected by the government shutdown include factory orders, trade balance, and job openings data—all key indicators of actual economic momentum. However, key scheduled events such as the Federal Reserve's consumer credit report and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will still be released as planned.
Speeches by Federal Reserve officials will influence interest rate expectations.
In addition to scattered data releases, speeches by Federal Reserve officials—including Anna Paulson of the Philadelphia Fed, Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed, and John Williams of the New York Fed—could influence silver prices by adjusting interest rate expectations. Last week, the Fed completed its second rate cut this year, making the market highly sensitive to any signals regarding whether the Fed will pause or adjust its policy path, especially given the current government shutdown leading to incomplete data.
Silver faces upward resistance, and gold also shows signs of caution.
Silver's short-term upside is limited by the retracement range of $50.02 to $51.07, with the 50-day moving average at $45.63 acting as a key support level. Traders are closely watching whether prices can break through these levels, but the current market momentum is insufficient. Spot gold is showing a similar pattern, holding steady near the resistance level of $4046.60, indicating that both metals are following the overall dollar trend and interest rate sentiment.
Short-term outlook: Ahead of key data releases, a cautiously bullish bias prevails.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
Silver maintains a cautiously bullish tone in the short term, but prices remain trapped below key technical levels. A clear break above $45.63 could open the way for prices to extend towards the $50 range, but this move would likely require a weak ADP report or dovish comments from the Federal Reserve as a trigger. Until then, silver is expected to trade within a range, driven by scattered data and news events.
At 01:19 Beijing time, spot silver was trading at $48.395 per ounce, down 0.53%.
Government data release delayed, market focus shifts to ADP report
With the US government shutdown entering its second month, markets are once again bracing for a delay in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly employment report, originally scheduled for release on Friday. This would be the second consecutive month that non-farm payroll (NFP) data has been absent, a key indicator of inflation and interest rate expectations. In this context, traders are expected to rely heavily on Wednesday's ADP private sector employment report, as well as the ISM manufacturing and services surveys, for guidance on market sentiment.
Other reports affected by the government shutdown include factory orders, trade balance, and job openings data—all key indicators of actual economic momentum. However, key scheduled events such as the Federal Reserve's consumer credit report and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will still be released as planned.
Speeches by Federal Reserve officials will influence interest rate expectations.
In addition to scattered data releases, speeches by Federal Reserve officials—including Anna Paulson of the Philadelphia Fed, Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed, and John Williams of the New York Fed—could influence silver prices by adjusting interest rate expectations. Last week, the Fed completed its second rate cut this year, making the market highly sensitive to any signals regarding whether the Fed will pause or adjust its policy path, especially given the current government shutdown leading to incomplete data.
Silver faces upward resistance, and gold also shows signs of caution.
Silver's short-term upside is limited by the retracement range of $50.02 to $51.07, with the 50-day moving average at $45.63 acting as a key support level. Traders are closely watching whether prices can break through these levels, but the current market momentum is insufficient. Spot gold is showing a similar pattern, holding steady near the resistance level of $4046.60, indicating that both metals are following the overall dollar trend and interest rate sentiment.
Short-term outlook: Ahead of key data releases, a cautiously bullish bias prevails.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
Silver maintains a cautiously bullish tone in the short term, but prices remain trapped below key technical levels. A clear break above $45.63 could open the way for prices to extend towards the $50 range, but this move would likely require a weak ADP report or dovish comments from the Federal Reserve as a trigger. Until then, silver is expected to trade within a range, driven by scattered data and news events.
At 01:19 Beijing time, spot silver was trading at $48.395 per ounce, down 0.53%.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
