December 15th Financial Breakfast: Beware of geopolitical risks surging gold prices; US and Ukraine continue discussions on a "peace plan"; oversupply concerns cause oil prices to fall.
2025-12-15 07:20:49
On Monday (December 15, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,304 per ounce. Shootings occurred in the US and Australia over the weekend, and with the Christmas holidays approaching, coupled with Trump's expectation of a peace agreement with Ukraine before Christmas, geopolitical uncertainty increased, boosting gold prices. US crude oil was trading around $57.53 per barrel. Oil prices recorded a weekly decline of more than 4% last week, with market focus remaining on concerns about global oversupply and a peace agreement with Ukraine.
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy, the National Bureau of Statistics released a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and Federal Reserve Governors Milan and Williams delivered speeches.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with major indexes experiencing significant declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by more than 1%, as investors withdrew from the market, particularly from the technology sector, due to concerns about a bubble in artificial intelligence and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, rising U.S. Treasury yields also added further pressure to the stock market.
Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51%, the S&P 500 fell 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.69%. The Nasdaq Composite hit its lowest closing level since November 25.
In individual stocks, chipmaker Broadcom's shares plummeted 11.4%, becoming the biggest drag on the S&P 500, as its warning of potentially declining future profit margins exacerbated market concerns about the profitability of AI investments. Leading AI chip company Nvidia also saw its shares fall 3.3%. Oracle's shares continued their decline, falling another 4.5%. AI infrastructure companies CoreWeave and Oklo fell 10.1% and 15.1%, respectively.
In terms of sectors, six of the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500 closed lower, with the heavyweight technology sector falling 2.9%, its biggest one-day drop since October 10. In contrast, defensive consumer staples stocks rose 0.9%.
However, some companies performed well. Lululemon, the sportswear manufacturer, saw its stock price rise 9.6% after announcing an upward revision of its annual profit forecast and the departure of its CEO.
Investors are turning their attention to key economic data due this week, including nonfarm payrolls, consumer inflation, and retail sales reports, which could further reveal the health of the U.S. economy. Markets remain cautious ahead of the data release.
Gold prices extended their gains on Friday, with spot gold rising 0.3% to $4,293.43 per ounce, hitting a seven-week high. In contrast, silver prices retreated after sharp fluctuations, with spot silver falling about 3% to $61.70 per ounce. It had earlier hit a record high of $64.64 per ounce in early trading before profit-taking ensued.
Platinum performed strongly, with prices rising 2.6% to $1,740.05 per ounce, its highest level since 2014. Palladium also rose slightly by 0.9%.
Market analysts believe that silver is experiencing a technical correction after its record-breaking rally, but its long-term fundamentals remain supported by factors such as increased industrial demand. Overall market sentiment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and its cautious stance on future policy. Investors are currently awaiting this week's US non-farm payroll data for further clues about the economic outlook.
Oil prices extended their decline on Friday, with both major benchmark crudes closing lower and recording weekly losses of over 4%. Market focus remained on concerns about a global supply glut, which offset support from geopolitical tensions.
Specifically, Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, down $0.16; U.S. crude oil futures settled at $57.44 per barrel, also down $0.16.
Despite recent escalations in tensions between the United States and Venezuela, and the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil facilities, traders and analysts generally agree that ample supply is the core factor dominating the market. This concern was exacerbated by a forecast released last Thursday by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which reported that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year, a surplus equivalent to almost 4% of global daily demand.
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.44 on Friday, but still recorded its third consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile, the pound fell due to weak UK economic data.
Data showed that the UK's GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the August-October period, which reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England would soon cut interest rates, causing the pound to fall 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3375.
The recent weakness of the US dollar is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Although the Fed announced its third interest rate cut this year, its comments were interpreted by the market as less hawkish than expected, increasing investors' expectations for further rate cuts next year, thus putting pressure on the dollar.
Among other major currencies, the euro was essentially unchanged at $1.1735 against the dollar, after hitting a more than two-month high last Thursday. The dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 155.93 yen, as market focus shifted to this week's Bank of Japan meeting, with a rate hike widely expected.
The Bondi Beach shooting in Australia has left 16 people dead.
The New South Wales Health Minister has confirmed that the Bondi Beach shooting has left 16 people dead. The shooting occurred on May 14th at Bondi Beach, Australia, resulting in casualties. A Jewish festival was taking place on the beach at the time. The New South Wales Premier stated that this was an attack targeting the Jewish community. (CCTV)
The US and Ukrainian delegations will continue discussions on the "peace plan" on the 15th.
On the 14th local time, an advisor to the Ukrainian president stated that talks between Ukrainian and US delegations in Berlin regarding a "peace plan" lasted for more than five hours and would continue on the 15th. On the 14th, the US and Ukraine held closed-door talks in Berlin, the German capital, to discuss the "peace plan" proposed by the US to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US representatives participating in the talks mainly included US Presidential Special Envoy Witkov and US President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Ukrainian representatives, in addition to President Zelensky, included Umaru Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, and General Sergei Genatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. (CCTV)
Trump reiterates his economic vision: calls for significant interest rate cuts
US President Trump stated that he hopes to see interest rates fall to 1% or lower within a year, well below the current Federal Reserve policy rate range. Trump believes the current high inflation is "inherited from the previous administration" and predicts that by the time the election approaches in a few months, the US price situation will be "very good." He also revealed that he is considering the possibility of acquiring stakes in defense companies and stated that his proposed US investment plan has not yet fully materialized. Regarding the upcoming midterm elections, Trump expressed uncertainty, admitting that he is unsure whether current economic policies will help the Republican Party win the election.
Is the British political landscape shifting? The Reform Party claims to have surpassed the Labour Party to become the largest party.
According to a report on the website of the British newspaper *The Daily Telegraph* on December 12, leaked data shows that the Labour Party's membership has fallen below 250,000, while the Reform Party itself reports nearly 269,000 members, claiming it has surpassed Labour to become the largest political party in Britain. Reform Party leader Nigel Farage stated that this is a huge milestone for the party, declaring that "the era of two-party politics is over." If this data is accurate, it represents another major blow to Keir Starmer's Labour Party, reflecting a potential challenge to the influence of traditional mainstream political parties in Britain from emerging political forces. The Reform Party is known for its emphasis on sovereignty and immigration control policies, and its rising influence could further reshape British political issues and the electoral landscape.
Trump signed an executive order to unify artificial intelligence regulations at the federal level.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 11 to unify federal regulations on artificial intelligence (AI) and restrict states from creating their own rules. The order states that for AI companies in the U.S. to succeed, they must be able to innovate freely without cumbersome regulations, but "excessive state-level regulation" hinders this goal. The order points out that the current fragmented state regulations inevitably result in a patchwork of 50 different regulatory systems, making compliance more difficult, especially for startups. The order aims to establish a "least burdensome" national standard. It also requires the Attorney General to establish a special task force on AI litigation, whose "sole responsibility" is to challenge state AI laws that conflict with this executive order. (Xinhua)
The US continues to escalate pressure on Venezuela, shifting from oil sanctions to threats of ground operations.
US President Donald Trump on March 12 again threatened the Venezuelan government, declaring that he would launch a ground operation against the country's drug cartels "soon," emphasizing that land operations are relatively easier to execute. Trump stated that the US had blocked 96% of drugs attempting to illegally enter the US, and that the focus of the next operation would shift to land. He had previously threatened to expand the crackdown on Venezuelan drug cartels from the sea to land. In response, Venezuelan Defense Minister López Obrador accused the US on the same day of attempting to blockade the Caribbean region to seize natural resources, and claimed that Venezuela was resisting. This statement marks a new development in US pressure on Venezuela, shifting from primarily economic measures such as sanctions and seizures of oil to more direct and overt threats of military action, exacerbating regional tensions.
Zelensky: The Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" can include compromises but must be fair.
On March 14th local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the "peace plan" aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict would not satisfy everyone and would inevitably involve various compromises. Zelenskyy pointed out, "This plan will not be one that everyone likes. Of course, there will be many compromises in the various versions of the plan. Ukraine has submitted its latest opinions and revised proposals regarding the plan to the United States." He particularly emphasized that any compromise must be based on fairness. Zelenskyy stated that most importantly, the plan must be as fair as possible, especially for Ukraine; and the "peace plan" must be truly effective, not just an empty promise, but a significant step towards ending the conflict. Zelenskyy also stressed that the plan must ensure that after its signing, Russia cannot launch new military operations against the Ukrainian people. (CCTV News)
China Economic Annual Conference: my country's total economic output is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year.
Today (the 13th), at the 2025-2026 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, stated that the 20 major indicators set forth in the 14th Five-Year Plan are about to be successfully achieved, promoting new and significant achievements in the development of the Party and the country. Han Wenxiu noted that recently, international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and Goldman Sachs have raised their forecasts for my country's economic growth this year and next. Looking back on the 14th Five-Year Plan, we have effectively responded to the extraordinary shocks and challenges posed by the global pandemic, decoupling and supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters. Economic strength has significantly increased, with my country's total economic output successively surpassing the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, and is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year. (CCTV News)
my country's core AI industry is projected to exceed one trillion yuan in scale by 2025, with AI glasses and smartwatches selling like hotcakes.
According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, my country's artificial intelligence (AI) industry has been developing rapidly this year, and the core AI industry is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in scale by 2025. On the consumer side, the smart economy is creating new consumption scenarios and driving the upgrading of consumption structure. According to business big data monitoring, in the first 10 months of this year, online retail sales of smart wearables such as AI glasses and smartwatches in my country increased by 23.1%, demonstrating the significant role smart products have played in boosting consumption and stimulating economic growth. (CCTV Finance)
my country's natural gas production will reach 300 billion cubic meters by 2030.
The "Report on the Achievements of China's Oil and Gas Industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period" shows that China is accelerating towards a new stage of modern oil and gas industry development, with an increasingly diversified and balanced energy structure. By 2030, my country's natural gas production is projected to reach 300 billion cubic meters. The report indicates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, my country's cumulative proven geological reserves of oil reached 7 billion tons and natural gas reached 7 trillion cubic meters, representing increases of approximately 43% and 40% respectively compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period, setting a new historical record for oil and gas production. The report predicts that over the next decade, my country's energy structure will exhibit characteristics of "reduced coal consumption, stable oil and gas reserves, and increased non-fossil fuels." By 2060, the proportions of fossil fuels, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power in my country are projected to be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. (CCTV News)
Key Focus Today
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy, the National Bureau of Statistics released a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and Federal Reserve Governors Milan and Williams delivered speeches.
stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with major indexes experiencing significant declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by more than 1%, as investors withdrew from the market, particularly from the technology sector, due to concerns about a bubble in artificial intelligence and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, rising U.S. Treasury yields also added further pressure to the stock market.
Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51%, the S&P 500 fell 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.69%. The Nasdaq Composite hit its lowest closing level since November 25.
In individual stocks, chipmaker Broadcom's shares plummeted 11.4%, becoming the biggest drag on the S&P 500, as its warning of potentially declining future profit margins exacerbated market concerns about the profitability of AI investments. Leading AI chip company Nvidia also saw its shares fall 3.3%. Oracle's shares continued their decline, falling another 4.5%. AI infrastructure companies CoreWeave and Oklo fell 10.1% and 15.1%, respectively.
In terms of sectors, six of the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500 closed lower, with the heavyweight technology sector falling 2.9%, its biggest one-day drop since October 10. In contrast, defensive consumer staples stocks rose 0.9%.
However, some companies performed well. Lululemon, the sportswear manufacturer, saw its stock price rise 9.6% after announcing an upward revision of its annual profit forecast and the departure of its CEO.
Investors are turning their attention to key economic data due this week, including nonfarm payrolls, consumer inflation, and retail sales reports, which could further reveal the health of the U.S. economy. Markets remain cautious ahead of the data release.
Gold Market
Gold prices extended their gains on Friday, with spot gold rising 0.3% to $4,293.43 per ounce, hitting a seven-week high. In contrast, silver prices retreated after sharp fluctuations, with spot silver falling about 3% to $61.70 per ounce. It had earlier hit a record high of $64.64 per ounce in early trading before profit-taking ensued.
Platinum performed strongly, with prices rising 2.6% to $1,740.05 per ounce, its highest level since 2014. Palladium also rose slightly by 0.9%.
Market analysts believe that silver is experiencing a technical correction after its record-breaking rally, but its long-term fundamentals remain supported by factors such as increased industrial demand. Overall market sentiment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and its cautious stance on future policy. Investors are currently awaiting this week's US non-farm payroll data for further clues about the economic outlook.
oil market
Oil prices extended their decline on Friday, with both major benchmark crudes closing lower and recording weekly losses of over 4%. Market focus remained on concerns about a global supply glut, which offset support from geopolitical tensions.
Specifically, Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, down $0.16; U.S. crude oil futures settled at $57.44 per barrel, also down $0.16.
Despite recent escalations in tensions between the United States and Venezuela, and the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil facilities, traders and analysts generally agree that ample supply is the core factor dominating the market. This concern was exacerbated by a forecast released last Thursday by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which reported that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year, a surplus equivalent to almost 4% of global daily demand.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.44 on Friday, but still recorded its third consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile, the pound fell due to weak UK economic data.
Data showed that the UK's GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the August-October period, which reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England would soon cut interest rates, causing the pound to fall 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3375.
The recent weakness of the US dollar is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Although the Fed announced its third interest rate cut this year, its comments were interpreted by the market as less hawkish than expected, increasing investors' expectations for further rate cuts next year, thus putting pressure on the dollar.
Among other major currencies, the euro was essentially unchanged at $1.1735 against the dollar, after hitting a more than two-month high last Thursday. The dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 155.93 yen, as market focus shifted to this week's Bank of Japan meeting, with a rate hike widely expected.
International News
The Bondi Beach shooting in Australia has left 16 people dead.
The New South Wales Health Minister has confirmed that the Bondi Beach shooting has left 16 people dead. The shooting occurred on May 14th at Bondi Beach, Australia, resulting in casualties. A Jewish festival was taking place on the beach at the time. The New South Wales Premier stated that this was an attack targeting the Jewish community. (CCTV)
The US and Ukrainian delegations will continue discussions on the "peace plan" on the 15th.
On the 14th local time, an advisor to the Ukrainian president stated that talks between Ukrainian and US delegations in Berlin regarding a "peace plan" lasted for more than five hours and would continue on the 15th. On the 14th, the US and Ukraine held closed-door talks in Berlin, the German capital, to discuss the "peace plan" proposed by the US to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US representatives participating in the talks mainly included US Presidential Special Envoy Witkov and US President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Ukrainian representatives, in addition to President Zelensky, included Umaru Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, and General Sergei Genatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. (CCTV)
Trump reiterates his economic vision: calls for significant interest rate cuts
US President Trump stated that he hopes to see interest rates fall to 1% or lower within a year, well below the current Federal Reserve policy rate range. Trump believes the current high inflation is "inherited from the previous administration" and predicts that by the time the election approaches in a few months, the US price situation will be "very good." He also revealed that he is considering the possibility of acquiring stakes in defense companies and stated that his proposed US investment plan has not yet fully materialized. Regarding the upcoming midterm elections, Trump expressed uncertainty, admitting that he is unsure whether current economic policies will help the Republican Party win the election.
Is the British political landscape shifting? The Reform Party claims to have surpassed the Labour Party to become the largest party.
According to a report on the website of the British newspaper *The Daily Telegraph* on December 12, leaked data shows that the Labour Party's membership has fallen below 250,000, while the Reform Party itself reports nearly 269,000 members, claiming it has surpassed Labour to become the largest political party in Britain. Reform Party leader Nigel Farage stated that this is a huge milestone for the party, declaring that "the era of two-party politics is over." If this data is accurate, it represents another major blow to Keir Starmer's Labour Party, reflecting a potential challenge to the influence of traditional mainstream political parties in Britain from emerging political forces. The Reform Party is known for its emphasis on sovereignty and immigration control policies, and its rising influence could further reshape British political issues and the electoral landscape.
Trump signed an executive order to unify artificial intelligence regulations at the federal level.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 11 to unify federal regulations on artificial intelligence (AI) and restrict states from creating their own rules. The order states that for AI companies in the U.S. to succeed, they must be able to innovate freely without cumbersome regulations, but "excessive state-level regulation" hinders this goal. The order points out that the current fragmented state regulations inevitably result in a patchwork of 50 different regulatory systems, making compliance more difficult, especially for startups. The order aims to establish a "least burdensome" national standard. It also requires the Attorney General to establish a special task force on AI litigation, whose "sole responsibility" is to challenge state AI laws that conflict with this executive order. (Xinhua)
The US continues to escalate pressure on Venezuela, shifting from oil sanctions to threats of ground operations.
US President Donald Trump on March 12 again threatened the Venezuelan government, declaring that he would launch a ground operation against the country's drug cartels "soon," emphasizing that land operations are relatively easier to execute. Trump stated that the US had blocked 96% of drugs attempting to illegally enter the US, and that the focus of the next operation would shift to land. He had previously threatened to expand the crackdown on Venezuelan drug cartels from the sea to land. In response, Venezuelan Defense Minister López Obrador accused the US on the same day of attempting to blockade the Caribbean region to seize natural resources, and claimed that Venezuela was resisting. This statement marks a new development in US pressure on Venezuela, shifting from primarily economic measures such as sanctions and seizures of oil to more direct and overt threats of military action, exacerbating regional tensions.
Zelensky: The Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" can include compromises but must be fair.
On March 14th local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the "peace plan" aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict would not satisfy everyone and would inevitably involve various compromises. Zelenskyy pointed out, "This plan will not be one that everyone likes. Of course, there will be many compromises in the various versions of the plan. Ukraine has submitted its latest opinions and revised proposals regarding the plan to the United States." He particularly emphasized that any compromise must be based on fairness. Zelenskyy stated that most importantly, the plan must be as fair as possible, especially for Ukraine; and the "peace plan" must be truly effective, not just an empty promise, but a significant step towards ending the conflict. Zelenskyy also stressed that the plan must ensure that after its signing, Russia cannot launch new military operations against the Ukrainian people. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
China Economic Annual Conference: my country's total economic output is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year.
Today (the 13th), at the 2025-2026 China Economic Annual Conference held at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, stated that the 20 major indicators set forth in the 14th Five-Year Plan are about to be successfully achieved, promoting new and significant achievements in the development of the Party and the country. Han Wenxiu noted that recently, international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and Goldman Sachs have raised their forecasts for my country's economic growth this year and next. Looking back on the 14th Five-Year Plan, we have effectively responded to the extraordinary shocks and challenges posed by the global pandemic, decoupling and supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters. Economic strength has significantly increased, with my country's total economic output successively surpassing the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, and is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year. (CCTV News)
my country's core AI industry is projected to exceed one trillion yuan in scale by 2025, with AI glasses and smartwatches selling like hotcakes.
According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, my country's artificial intelligence (AI) industry has been developing rapidly this year, and the core AI industry is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in scale by 2025. On the consumer side, the smart economy is creating new consumption scenarios and driving the upgrading of consumption structure. According to business big data monitoring, in the first 10 months of this year, online retail sales of smart wearables such as AI glasses and smartwatches in my country increased by 23.1%, demonstrating the significant role smart products have played in boosting consumption and stimulating economic growth. (CCTV Finance)
my country's natural gas production will reach 300 billion cubic meters by 2030.
The "Report on the Achievements of China's Oil and Gas Industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period" shows that China is accelerating towards a new stage of modern oil and gas industry development, with an increasingly diversified and balanced energy structure. By 2030, my country's natural gas production is projected to reach 300 billion cubic meters. The report indicates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, my country's cumulative proven geological reserves of oil reached 7 billion tons and natural gas reached 7 trillion cubic meters, representing increases of approximately 43% and 40% respectively compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period, setting a new historical record for oil and gas production. The report predicts that over the next decade, my country's energy structure will exhibit characteristics of "reduced coal consumption, stable oil and gas reserves, and increased non-fossil fuels." By 2060, the proportions of fossil fuels, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power in my country are projected to be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. (CCTV News)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
