High-level talks between Ukraine and the United States, aimed at ending nearly four years of conflict with Russia, will continue this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Ukraine’s top negotiator, Rusdem Umerov, confirmed the plan on Sunday (January 18) after concluding two days of talks in Florida.

Florida talks focused on security and reconstruction

The recent meeting in Florida involved a U.S. team, including Special Envoy Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law. According to Umerov, the discussions focused primarily on two issues: long-term security guarantees for Ukraine and a comprehensive post-war reconstruction plan.

Although Umerov described the talks as an in-depth discussion of "practical mechanisms," he did not reveal any signs of reaching any substantive agreement.

The Ukrainian delegation, including Kirillo Budanov, chief of staff to President Zelensky, and David Allakhamia, leader of the parliamentary faction, also reported at the meeting on the recent Russian military attacks that severely damaged the country's energy infrastructure.

Diplomatic mediation shifts to Davos

Umerov posted on Telegram, "We agreed to continue working at the team level during the next round of consultations in Davos." A key objective for Kyiv is to clarify Washington's position on Russian-backed diplomatic initiatives. Washington has been encouraging Ukraine to agree to a peace framework in order to subsequently submit it to Moscow.

At the same time, Ukraine and its European allies are working to establish a safeguard mechanism.

Zelensky: Russia's strikes undermined diplomatic efforts.

Zelensky believes that Russia's recent military actions demonstrate its lack of genuine interest in a diplomatic solution. In a video address that evening, he stated, "If the Russians truly wanted an end to this, they would focus on diplomacy."

Zelensky emphasized the widespread destruction caused by the attack, which left hundreds of apartment buildings without water and electricity, as evidence of Moscow's intentions.

Infrastructure attacked in frigid weather

The attack has had a severe impact, with nighttime temperatures dropping to -16 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit). According to Zelensky, nearly 58,000 repair workers are working to restore the national heating network.

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba reported that 30 apartment buildings in the capital Kyiv are still without heating following the recent attacks.

Worryingly, Ukrainian intelligence has indicated that Russia is actively conducting reconnaissance in preparation for a possible new attack. Foreign Minister Andrei Sibyakha warned last Saturday that there was evidence that Russia might be considering an attack on a substation supplying power to the country's nuclear power plants. Russian officials have not yet immediately responded to requests for comment on these allegations.

Impact analysis on the oil market

The latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have temporarily limited gains in crude oil prices, as they offer a glimpse into a potential de-escalation of the conflict. On Monday (January 19th) during Asian trading hours, US crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly around $59.40 per barrel.

However, in practice, crude oil traders pay closer attention to the actual situation on the battlefield, the actual flow data of Russian crude oil exports, and more rigid indicators such as OPEC+ production policies.

It is recommended to use this information as a clue to observe changes in market sentiment, and to make a comprehensive judgment in conjunction with real-time crude oil inventory, production reports, and statements from major oil-producing countries.



(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)

At 11:00 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $59.40 per barrel.