A weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts supported a gold rebound, with prices returning to the upper edge of their recent trading range in the short term.
2026-02-11 13:38:21
Gold prices rebounded above $5,050 during Wednesday's Asian trading session, consolidating near the upper edge of their trading range. The recent weakening of the US dollar due to expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut has provided support for gold, a non-yielding asset.
Traders are generally cautious, and the short-term rebound momentum is not yet sufficient to trigger a large-scale bullish move. The market is focused on the upcoming US January non-farm payroll data for more clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
U.S. retail sales data for December was weak, with total retail sales flat at $735 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than the previous month's 3.3% and market expectations of 0.4%. The weak retail sales, coupled with a weak labor market, fueled market bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a weaker dollar and supporting a rebound in gold prices.
Money market indicators suggest a potential 58 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, further easing pressure on the dollar against gold. Meanwhile, market attention has returned to the Fed's independence, with US President Trump indicating he might sue newly nominated Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh.
If it doesn't cut interest rates; Federal Reserve Governor Stephan Miran also pointed out that a completely independent central bank does not exist. These remarks weakened the bullish momentum of the dollar and boosted the short-term upward momentum of gold.
Regional Federal Reserve officials said that policy is close to neutral, the labor market is stable, but inflation remains high, and monetary policy is likely to remain on hold, which means that gold will continue to be attractive as a safe haven and hedge.
Market bulls are cautious at current price levels, with most traders preferring to wait for further directional guidance from the non-farm payroll data and CPI report. Easing geopolitical tensions have also limited safe-haven flows into gold, but a weak dollar and market expectations of further monetary easing continue to support a slightly bullish price trend.
From the daily chart, XAU/USD has recently rebounded after fluctuating above $5,050, indicating that short-term bulls are attempting to regain the initiative. The daily moving average system shows that the price remains above the key 200-day moving average, and the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages are trending upwards, providing support and reinforcing the overall bullish trend.
The candlestick pattern shows alternating small positive and negative lines, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears, but with strong support below. The MACD indicator shows the MACD line above the signal line, with both lines above the zero axis, and the red histogram contracting, suggesting that upward momentum has temporarily slowed and further confirmation of a breakout is needed.
The KDJ indicator shows the K and D lines intersecting in the upper-middle range, while the J line has slightly declined, suggesting a possible minor consolidation in the short term, but the overall bullish trend remains unchanged. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 56, indicating a consolidation phase.
Editor's Note:
Gold prices are trending slightly higher in the short term, supported primarily by a weakening dollar and expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Easing geopolitical tensions are putting some pressure on safe-haven flows, but the weak dollar is providing strong support. Daily charts show prices holding steady above key moving average support.
The market will continue to focus on the release of the US non-farm payroll report and CPI data, which may cause short-term directional fluctuations. Pay attention to whether the $5,090 resistance level is broken.
Traders are generally cautious, and the short-term rebound momentum is not yet sufficient to trigger a large-scale bullish move. The market is focused on the upcoming US January non-farm payroll data for more clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
U.S. retail sales data for December was weak, with total retail sales flat at $735 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than the previous month's 3.3% and market expectations of 0.4%. The weak retail sales, coupled with a weak labor market, fueled market bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a weaker dollar and supporting a rebound in gold prices.
Money market indicators suggest a potential 58 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, further easing pressure on the dollar against gold. Meanwhile, market attention has returned to the Fed's independence, with US President Trump indicating he might sue newly nominated Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh.
If it doesn't cut interest rates; Federal Reserve Governor Stephan Miran also pointed out that a completely independent central bank does not exist. These remarks weakened the bullish momentum of the dollar and boosted the short-term upward momentum of gold.
Regional Federal Reserve officials said that policy is close to neutral, the labor market is stable, but inflation remains high, and monetary policy is likely to remain on hold, which means that gold will continue to be attractive as a safe haven and hedge.
Market bulls are cautious at current price levels, with most traders preferring to wait for further directional guidance from the non-farm payroll data and CPI report. Easing geopolitical tensions have also limited safe-haven flows into gold, but a weak dollar and market expectations of further monetary easing continue to support a slightly bullish price trend.
From the daily chart, XAU/USD has recently rebounded after fluctuating above $5,050, indicating that short-term bulls are attempting to regain the initiative. The daily moving average system shows that the price remains above the key 200-day moving average, and the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages are trending upwards, providing support and reinforcing the overall bullish trend.
The candlestick pattern shows alternating small positive and negative lines, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears, but with strong support below. The MACD indicator shows the MACD line above the signal line, with both lines above the zero axis, and the red histogram contracting, suggesting that upward momentum has temporarily slowed and further confirmation of a breakout is needed.
The KDJ indicator shows the K and D lines intersecting in the upper-middle range, while the J line has slightly declined, suggesting a possible minor consolidation in the short term, but the overall bullish trend remains unchanged. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 56, indicating a consolidation phase.
Editor's Note:
Gold prices are trending slightly higher in the short term, supported primarily by a weakening dollar and expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Easing geopolitical tensions are putting some pressure on safe-haven flows, but the weak dollar is providing strong support. Daily charts show prices holding steady above key moving average support.
The market will continue to focus on the release of the US non-farm payroll report and CPI data, which may cause short-term directional fluctuations. Pay attention to whether the $5,090 resistance level is broken.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
