The US dollar continued its weakness against the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) in Asian trading on Tuesday, trading around 1.4130 , retreating again after consolidating sideways in the previous session. Rising international oil prices provided support for Canada's energy-export-dependent economy, resulting in a relatively strong Canadian dollar and pushing the USD/CAD pair lower. The recent surge in international crude oil prices is primarily driven by the rapidly escalating tensions in the Middle East. US President Trump announced the reinstatement of maritime blockades against Iranian vessels and imposed a 20% compensatory fee on all commercial cargo transported through the Strait of Hormuz, further exacerbating market concerns about global energy supply security. Trump stated that the US, having long undertaken the responsibility of ensuring shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, should receive corresponding economic compensation, and specifically named Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait as regional countries to share the responsibility. Simultaneously, the escalating new round of military conflict between the US and Iran has further increased the risk premium in the international crude oil market. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport . As one of the largest crude oil suppliers to the US, Canada's crude oil exports are highly dependent on the international energy market. Rising oil prices typically benefit Canadian export revenue and economic performance, thus enhancing the attractiveness of the Canadian dollar and putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate. However, the decline in the exchange rate has been somewhat limited. With the escalating tensions in the Middle East, global risk aversion continues to rise, with some funds flowing back into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. Meanwhile, rising international oil prices have exacerbated market concerns about a resurgence of global inflation, increasing investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its restrictive monetary policy. Currently, the market is largely focused on the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expects the overall US June CPI month-on-month rate to be around -0.1% , while the core CPI month-on-month rate is expected to increase by 0.3% . If core inflation continues to be resilient, it will further strengthen market expectations for the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy, thus supporting the US dollar. At the same time, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress that day, and his remarks on inflation, economic growth, and the future path of interest rates will also be the focus of market attention. Recently, market expectations for further tightening by the Fed in September have clearly intensified. If his speech continues to release hawkish signals, the US dollar is expected to regain buying support, thus limiting further declines in the USD/CAD exchange rate; if the wording is more dovish, it may push the exchange rate to continue its downward trend. From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD daily chart is still in a consolidation phase, with the exchange rate falling to near major moving averages, indicating a weakening of the bullish advantage. The MACD indicator's death cross and subsequent expansion of the green bars indicate that bearish momentum is in control. The RSI indicator has fallen back to around 50, reflecting weak short-term market sentiment. If the exchange rate breaks below the 1.4120 support level, it may further test the 1.4080 and 1.4020 areas. If it regains a foothold above 1.4180 , it may rebound to challenge the 1.4230 and 1.4280 resistance levels. On the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD pair maintains a downward trend, with the price center continuing to decline. The MACD indicator is below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates, but the rate of green bar expansion has slowed. The RSI remains around 45, indicating continued short-term weakness. If international oil prices continue to rise and push the Canadian dollar stronger, the exchange rate may further test the 1.4120 support level. If US CPI data is stronger than expected or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, the USD/CAD pair may rebound to around 1.4180 or even 1.4230 . In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Editor's Summary: The USD/CAD pair is currently influenced by both rising oil prices and safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices, providing fundamental support for the Canadian dollar, while market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates limit the dollar's decline. In the short term, US June CPI data, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech, and international oil price trends will be key factors influencing the exchange rate. If oil prices continue to rise and inflation data remains moderate, the USD/CAD pair may have further room to fall; if US inflation remains strong, the dollar is expected to strengthen again, and the exchange rate may experience a technical rebound.