2026-07-14 20:48:11
[Caixin Futures: Edible Oils Continue Rebound, Palm Oil Leads Gains, Soybean Meal and Corn Weak, Live Hogs Sell on Rallies] ⑴ Edible Oils: Today, domestic edible oils continued their rebound, with palm oil leading the gains, mainly driven by the coordinated rise in international crude oil and vegetable oils. Overnight, escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed up crude oil prices, with the Brent crude oil futures contract rising by more than 1%, leading to a 3.10% rebound in US soybean oil, and rapeseed prices also strengthened. Both domestic and international palm oil futures followed suit, with the Malaysian palm oil futures contract rising 1.39% and the domestic September contract rising 1.51%. While the fundamentals of the Malaysian spot market have seen limited improvement, the price of palm oil has become more attractive after the surge in soybean oil prices. Coupled with lower-than-expected rainfall in the main producing areas of Malaysia and Indonesia and expectations of El Niño's impact, the bearish sentiment in the market has eased significantly, and both domestic and international edible oil futures have generally followed the sector's upward trend. Spot market prices for soybean and palm oil remained stable, while Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil prices increased by 140 yuan to 10,480 yuan. (2) Soybean Meal: Improved expectations for US soybean exports coupled with unfavorable weather in producing areas led to higher US soybean futures prices and increased import costs. Domestic soybean oil and soybean meal futures followed suit, but spot prices are still in the accumulation phase, with significant supply pressure. Downstream demand is flat, and there is little enthusiasm for building up inventory. The supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the spot basis remains weak. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing high prices. (3) Corn: The fundamental loose situation remains unchanged. Traders in producing areas are selling according to market conditions. New wheat and imported grains are increasing overall supply pressure. Downstream users mostly maintain a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Under the background of supply-demand imbalance, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. The main strategy is to sell on rallies. (4) Live Pigs: The second breeding season has recently cooled down, and spot prices have weakened. The futures market correction has verified the previous logic. It is recommended to sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, breeding profits may see some recovery, but the space is limited. On a month-on-month basis, due to the decline in sow inventory 10 months ago, the theoretical supply in the second half of the year will decrease month-on-month, but the magnitude will be limited. Coupled with the peak consumption season in the second half of the year and policy guidance to reduce production, breeding profits may see a phased recovery. (5) Eggs: Prices have remained relatively strong recently. Hot weather has lowered egg production rates, and farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a slight decrease in supply. The peak demand season is from July to September, with smooth sales at the retail level. Demand may further increase in mid-to-late July. Given the weak supply and strong demand, inventories have decreased, and egg prices are likely to remain relatively strong. It is recommended to buy on dips.