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2026-07-14 21:28:11
[Gas Prices Fall for Fifth Consecutive Day, Approaching Oversold Levels; Freeport Maintenance Puts Pressure; March-April Spread Hits Record Low] ⑴ US natural gas futures continued to fall by about 1% on Tuesday, hitting a two-month low. The most active contract closed at $2.87 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest closing level since mid-May. ⑵ This marks the fifth consecutive trading day of declines. Technically, the price has been in oversold territory for two consecutive days, the first time since April, indicating a slight weakening of short-term selling pressure. ⑶ The main factors suppressing gas prices include a slight increase in production and a planned maintenance shutdown at the Freeport LNG Texas plant from July 10th to late August, leading to an expected reduction in export flows. ⑷ In the long-term structure, the spread between the March and April 2027 contracts narrowed to a historical low of approximately 18 cents. This low "widowmaker" spread suggests that the market is not anxious about winter supply. (5) On the supply side, the average daily production in the 48 contiguous U.S. states has risen to 110.2 billion cubic feet so far in July, slightly higher than June's level, but still lower than the monthly record high in December last year. (6) On the demand side, weather forecasts indicate that the weather will remain warm until the end of July, supporting demand for gas for power generation. Institutions predict that total domestic demand will remain around 110.4 billion cubic feet this week and next. (7) Regarding inventory, the market expects gas storage levels for the week ending July 10 to be about 6.6% higher than normal. The loose inventory situation continues to suppress spot market sentiment, and the market awaits guidance from Thursday's inventory report.
