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2026-07-15 00:08:12
[Analyst: June Inflation Data Supports Market Overestimation of Fed Rate Hike Probability] Tony Welch of SignatureFD said the market has overestimated the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. Following the release of weak June CPI inflation data, the futures market reflected a lower probability of a rate hike this month, but according to CME Group data, at least one rate hike this year remains possible. Welch stated that inflation is trending downwards regardless of fuel price fluctuations. "We just aren't seeing the kind of wage growth that can sustain broad-based inflation across the economy in the long term," he said. He expects Fed Chairman Warsh to try to keep inflation expectations near the Fed's 2% target. "I do think he's trying to use his rhetoric to help set and keep inflation expectations stable," he said.
