The US dollar (USD/CAD) traded in a consolidation phase against the Canadian dollar during Tuesday's Asian session, hovering around 1.4120 after hitting a two-week high. Current market fundamentals still favor further gains for USD/CAD, but upward momentum has slowed as investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision this week, with the market widely expecting the policy committee to maintain the current interest rate level. However, investors are focusing on the policy statement and the post-meeting press conference, especially Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks on the future path of interest rates. The Fed's guidance on inflation, economic growth, and the scope for future policy adjustments will directly affect the short-term trend of the US dollar and become an important driver of the USD/CAD exchange rate. Currently, the US dollar index is hovering near its monthly high, indicating that the market still has some demand for dollar assets. Although the situation between the US and Iran has eased somewhat, limiting further expansion of safe-haven buying of the US dollar, the market has not yet completely reduced its expectations for US interest rates to remain high. Some market institutions believe that investors are cautious about recent changes in macroeconomic news, especially given the intertwined environment of geopolitical risks, energy prices, and central bank policy signals, and the market is not yet prepared to significantly adjust interest rate expectations. Before the Fed meeting results are announced, the dollar interest rate market may continue to remain in a wait-and-see state. As for the Canadian dollar, its recent performance has been affected by multiple pressures. Crude oil prices have recently fallen significantly, reaching near a one-week low, putting pressure on the currency of Canada, an energy-exporting economy. Because the Canadian economy is highly correlated with the energy market, declining oil prices typically weaken the Canadian dollar's appeal. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada's relatively dovish policy stance and market concerns about economic growth pressures have also limited the Canadian dollar's performance. Investors believe that if Canadian inflation continues to decline, the central bank may maintain a more accommodative stance, further widening the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. From a market sentiment perspective, the current rise in USD/CAD is mainly driven by a strong US dollar and a weak Canadian dollar. Falling oil prices have reduced support for the Canadian dollar, while increased demand for the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy has kept USD/CAD relatively strong. However, short-term traders still need to pay attention to risk factors. If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, the market may lower its expectations for US dollar interest rates, pushing the US dollar lower. At the same time, if oil prices rise again due to supply risks, it could also help the Canadian dollar recover some of its losses. From a daily chart perspective, USD/CAD has been rising steadily after rebounding from a one-month low, currently approaching the 1.4120 area, with an overall bullish structure. The first resistance level to watch is around 1.4150; a break above this area could lead to a further test of the 1.4200 psychological level. Support is seen around 1.4050; a break below this level could lead to a pullback to the 1.4000 area. Technically, the exchange rate remains in an uptrend, but is currently consolidating at higher levels, awaiting confirmation of direction from new fundamental factors. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD maintains an upward trend, trading above short-term moving averages, indicating that bulls still hold a certain advantage. However, the pace of the rise has slowed, with the market awaiting new impetus from the Federal Reserve's decision. A break above the 1.4150 resistance area could open up further upside potential; failure to do so could result in a technical pullback, testing support around 1.4050. Technical indicators suggest that short-term upward momentum has weakened, but no clear reversal signals have yet emerged. The recent rise in USD/CAD reflects a combination of factors, including a strong US dollar, falling oil prices, and internal pressures on the Canadian dollar. The Federal Reserve policy meeting will be crucial for short-term price movements. If the policy stance leans towards maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar may continue to receive support, driving a further rebound in USD/CAD. However, future price movements remain uncertain. Changes in oil prices, the Bank of Canada's policy stance, and global risk sentiment can all influence the Canadian dollar's performance. In the short term, the 1.4000-1.4200 area will be a key trading range, and investors should pay close attention to the impact of Fed signals and changes in the energy market on the exchange rate's direction.