Gold continued to be under pressure in early Asian trading on Friday, with spot gold falling to around $4,320 at one point. This followed an unexpectedly strong U.S. producer price index reading that reinforced inflation concerns, while rapidly rising energy prices further amplified market anxieties about future price pressures. The rising dollar and U.S. Treasury yields also increased the relative cost of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Latest market data shows that spot gold touched $4,323.78 on Thursday before rebounding slightly, but remains in a clear correction phase overall. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year in August, higher than the revised 4.8% in July and slightly higher than the market expectation of 5.3%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month. Core PPI rose 4.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Structurally, energy costs have once again become a significant factor driving up production-side prices, especially given the recent significant rise in international energy prices. The risk of energy inflation transmitting to transportation, manufacturing, and service prices has resurfaced and is attracting market attention. The impact of this data on gold is not so much on the PPI itself, but on its alteration of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path. CME FedWatch data shows that the market is currently betting on a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, significantly higher than the approximately 62% before the PPI data release. If consumer inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed's tight policy stance may be extended further, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may still have room to rise, while gold may continue to face valuation pressure. Rising energy prices are becoming a key variable in the current renewed rise in inflation expectations. International oil prices have recently surged, with U.S. crude oil prices reaching around $96 and Brent crude breaking through the $100 mark. Rising energy prices not only directly increase fuel costs but may also be passed on to end-consumer prices through transportation, manufacturing, and service sector costs, making the market more concerned about a potential reversal in the decline of US inflation. Latest market information shows that rising oil prices have already significantly impacted pricing in the US bond and money markets. From an asset linkage perspective, gold is currently facing a relatively clear macroeconomic transmission chain: rising energy prices → rising inflation expectations → limited room for Fed rate cuts or even reconsideration of rate hikes → stronger US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar → pressure on gold. This is also the main reason why gold prices have recently experienced a significant pullback despite persistent geopolitical risks. Typically, geopolitical risks increase demand for gold as a safe haven, but if risk events simultaneously push up oil prices and trigger inflation concerns, the safe-haven support for gold may be partially offset by stronger interest rate pressures. The market is currently paying particular attention to the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI). The US Bureau of Labor Statistics previously confirmed that the August CPI will be released on September 11th, while the overall CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year. The market previously expected the overall CPI in August to remain around 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI was expected to fall to around 2.4%. Therefore, CPI may become a crucial watershed for the next stage of gold's price movement. If core inflation is higher than expected, the market may further increase its pricing in a Fed rate hike, potentially supporting the dollar and US Treasury yields, while gold may continue to test previous support levels. Conversely, if core CPI cools significantly, the recently rapidly rising expectations of a rate hike may cool again, and gold may experience a technical rebound. It is worth noting that the current decline in gold does not mean that its medium-term upward logic has been completely destroyed. Fiscal deficits, debt levels, global central bank reserve demand, and persistent geopolitical risks still constitute medium- to long-term support for gold. However, in the short term, the market has shifted its focus from safe-haven demand to changes in inflation, the dollar, and interest rate expectations, meaning that gold prices may become significantly more sensitive to US economic data in the future. From a daily chart perspective, spot gold has fallen below the $4,400 level again and is further approaching the $4,320 level, indicating a clear weakening of the short-term trend. Gold prices are currently below the 100-day simple moving average, which is around $4340. The price is also below the Bollinger Band's middle band, indicating a short-term bearish market structure. The RSI is currently around 45, below neutral levels but not yet in severely oversold territory, so technical indicators do not yet show strong reversal signals. The first resistance level to watch is the 100-day moving average around $4340. A successful break above this level would present a chance for a rebound towards the Bollinger Band's middle band around $4465. A further break above this level would target the upper Bollinger Band around $4675. On the downside, the key support level is the lower Bollinger Band around $4250. A decisive break below this area on the daily chart could open up further downside potential towards the previous consolidation zone. Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold prices have recently shown a clear pattern of lower lows and weak rebounds, indicating that short-term bears remain in control. The area around $4320 is a key area to watch. If the price can find support at this level and regain the $4340-$4400 range, a short-term technical rebound is possible. However, if $4320 is breached and a valid breakout occurs, the market may further test $4300 or even $4250. Conversely, only a recovery above $4400 and a further break above $4465 can significantly repair the weak structure on the 4-hour chart. Before the release of the US CPI data, gold price volatility is expected to remain high, and the subsequent changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields will determine the direction of the breakout. Editor's Summary: Gold is currently in a phase of renewed balancing act between macroeconomic policy expectations and safe-haven demand. Stronger PPI, rising oil prices, and increasing expectations of a Fed rate hike have become the main factors suppressing gold prices, while the US August CPI will further determine whether this pressure can continue. In the short term, $4320 is a key support level; a break below this level could open up further downside potential. If the CPI is lower than expected, a cooling of rate hike bets could drive a rebound in gold. Overall, gold prices remain weak in the short term, but medium- to long-term support factors have not disappeared. Close attention should be paid to the interplay between CPI, the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and energy prices.