International oil prices continued their sharp rise. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the United States extended its gains on Friday, trading around $102.50, a significant increase from previous lows. The market generally believes that the core reason for the recent rapid rise in oil prices has shifted from solely geopolitical risks to a multi-pronged approach driven by continued disruptions to Middle Eastern supply, restrictions on key shipping routes, and a resurgence in physical crude oil purchases. The most direct driver of this price increase remains supply risks in the Middle East. Continued disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have significantly heightened market concerns about a further decline in Middle Eastern crude oil export capacity. Simultaneously, the Red Sea shipping risks have spread to Saudi Arabia's crude oil export routes, prompting the market to reassess the safety margins of the global oil supply chain. If production, loading, and transportation in major oil-producing regions are simultaneously affected, the market will pre-calculate a higher supply risk premium, even if the actual supply losses are not yet fully reflected in inventory data. Currently, the market is particularly focused on the actual navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This sea area connects the Persian Gulf to major global energy consumption markets; continued shipping disruptions will affect not only crude oil but also refined petroleum products and liquefied natural gas. The latest assessment from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that global oil inventories have decreased by approximately 400 million barrels this year due to Middle Eastern supply disruptions; in August, the scale of production shutdowns in the Middle East further expanded to approximately 6.7 million barrels per day, and the average shutdown in the fourth quarter is expected to reach approximately 5.7 million barrels per day. U.S. inventory data also provided some support for oil prices. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that for the week ending September 4, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 391,000 barrels to approximately 424.1 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories fell by approximately 684,000 barrels to 21.824 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volumes rose to approximately 17.6 million barrels per day, indicating that refinery operations remained at a high level. However, the U.S. crude oil market is not entirely without buffer. During the same period, U.S. crude oil production rose to a record high of approximately 13.9 million barrels per day, an increase of approximately 85,000 barrels per day from the previous week. This means that U.S. domestic production can still buffer international supply tightness to some extent, but if supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to expand, the ability of increased U.S. production to fill the global gap remains limited. Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve continued to be released, with inventories falling to approximately 285.4 million barrels in the week ending September 4. From a macro market perspective, WTI's return to $100 has clear inflationary implications. Rising energy prices not only directly increase gasoline, diesel, and transportation costs but also pass on to end-user prices through manufacturing, logistics, and service costs. The recent 5.4% year-on-year increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) has exceeded market expectations. Further increases in oil prices could reignite concerns about recurring US inflationary pressures, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. The correlation between oil prices, inflation, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields may become a crucial transmission chain in the financial markets going forward. Therefore, the current WTI price breakthrough of $100 does not merely signify rising crude oil prices, but also indicates a repricing of energy supply risks in the global market. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has previously raised its 2026 oil price forecast, increasing the average annual WTI price expectation to approximately $84.65, while also anticipating continued declines in global inventories. It is noteworthy that this forecast was made before the latest escalation of tensions in the Middle East; therefore, if supply disruptions continue to widen, actual price movements may deviate significantly from the previous baseline scenario. From a market sentiment perspective, the breakthrough of $100 has significantly boosted bullish sentiment, but the risk of chasing high prices has also increased. On one hand, supply disruptions, shipping bottlenecks, and the resumption of purchases by major Asian countries provide real fundamental support for oil prices; on the other hand, the rapid rise in oil prices themselves may limit further gains through demand-driven mechanisms. If energy costs remain high for an extended period, global economic growth pressures will further increase. Energy-intensive industries such as aviation, transportation, and manufacturing may be the first to be affected, ultimately suppressing crude oil demand. Therefore, the following two key areas need to be monitored: first, whether shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea will deteriorate further; and second, whether changes in US inventories and production can offset some of the overseas supply gap. If supply risks continue to escalate, WTI may seek a new price equilibrium at higher levels. If shipping resumes, supply disruptions ease, and demand is suppressed by high oil prices, then the area above $100 may once again become a battleground between bulls and bears. From a daily chart perspective, WTI has recently completed a rapid breakout from around $90 to the $100 mark, and prices have re-entered a strong upward trend. Currently, prices are trading above major short-term moving averages, and previous highs have been broken consecutively, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant. The $100 level has transformed from a psychological resistance point into a key short-term support/resistance level. If the daily chart can maintain a firm hold above $100, the market will further focus on the psychological levels of $105 and $110. If significant profit-taking occurs during the upward movement, $100 will initially provide support, with further support in the $96-$95 area. Due to the recent substantial gains, momentum indicators such as the RSI may be entering overbought territory. Therefore, even with a bullish medium-term trend, short-term technical corrections after rapid rallies should be anticipated. Looking at the 4-hour chart, WTI exhibits a clear pattern of rising highs and lows. The rapid rebound from the $95 level strengthened the bullish defense, and the subsequent break above $100 further strengthened the short-term trend. The $103-$104 area is currently the first resistance zone. If the price can hold above this zone, it may continue to test $105 or even $110. However, if it breaks below $100 after a surge, the validity of the breakout needs to be reconfirmed, and the price may retrace to the $98-$96 area. Overall, the 4-hour chart remains bullish, but the short-term gains have significantly expanded, market volatility has increased, and the subsequent market movement is more likely to be a "strong upward attack within high-level consolidation" rather than a one-sided straight upward trend. The editor's summary indicates that WTI's break above $100 reflects a significant widening of supply risk premiums in the current crude oil market. Disrupted Middle East shipping, reduced regional supply, and declining US inventories have collectively reinforced the bullish narrative, while continued depletion of global inventories has further compressed the market's safety margin. In the short term, as long as supply disruptions do not ease significantly, $100 may gradually transform from a psychological barrier into a new important support level. However, the higher the oil price, the more pronounced the negative impact on global demand and inflation. The key to future market movements will no longer be solely geopolitical risk, but rather whether supply losses can continue to expand and whether high oil prices begin to cause demand disruption. If all three factors continue to develop in a bullish direction, WTI still has room to extend towards the $105-$110 range; conversely, if shipping resumes and demand is suppressed by high oil prices, significant profit-taking pressure may emerge above $100.