Silver is trading around $64, having rebounded sharply from its weakness earlier in 2026—the previous decline brought silver down about 14.8% year-to-date, though it is still up more than 61% over the past twelve months. This rebound is driven by a complex mix of factors: persistently high safe-haven demand due to US-Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, while conflicting signals from Tehran regarding the possibility of establishing a secure shipping lane have added further uncertainty to the market. The situation with the Federal Reserve adds further complexity. Last Friday's strong non-farm payroll report—adding 162,000 jobs compared to market consensus expectations of around 53,000—pushed the probability of a September rate hike to approximately 60%, initially putting pressure on precious metals, but silver subsequently recovered most of its losses. Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in higher than expected, rising 5.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points above the forecast, mainly driven by a 4.2% surge in energy costs related to the current conflict, further reinforcing the Fed's reason for continued vigilance. Beneath all this, the silver-to-gold ratio is close to 65.8, indicating that silver's gains have outpaced gold's recent strong performance. Some traders interpret this as silver catching up after a difficult start to the year; however, a weakening dollar ahead of next week's inflation data release remains a more significant direct driver. Technical Analysis (Spot silver daily chart source: FX678) As shown in the technical chart, since the end of July, silver has been consolidating within a wide symmetrical triangle: the downtrend line extending from the high of 71.066 is converging with the uptrend line extending from the low of 56.536 (the starting point of this entire upward trend). Currently, the price is testing this triple convergence area: the uptrend line, the 62.50–63.00 mid-term support zone, and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near 63.80. Bullish Scenario If buyers can hold this triple convergence area of trend line, support level, and Fibonacci retracement, the overall triangle structure will remain intact. Once the price re-establishes itself above the 0.382 retracement level and the 200-period exponential moving average (both located near 65.13–65.52), it will open the way for a retest of the 71.066 high (the starting point of this entire pullback). Bearish Scenario Conversely, if the price confirms a break below the uptrend line and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, it indicates that this pullback has substantial momentum, exposing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near 62.086. Further declines could lead to a more thorough retest of the key support zone of 56-57 (the starting point of this medium-term uptrend). Since the price is at the intersection of a multi-week trendline, a key support zone, and an important Fibonacci level, silver's next move will determine whether this consolidation breaks upwards towards new multi-year highs or whether the overall uptrend finally faces a deeper correction.