This week, the energy market showed significant divergence. Both crude oil and crude oil futures surged on the weekly chart, posting four consecutive weeks of gains followed by a single week of decline, with funds initially concentrated on long positions. US fuel oil and unleaded gasoline followed suit, while natural gas bucked the trend and fell. Disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping, Saudi supply falling to low levels, and record US diesel prices constituted the main supply-side factors. However, the upper shadow at high levels and profit-taking indicate increased short-term divergence, while the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. This week, the energy sector was led by crude oil. Both WTI and Brent crude rose over 8% for the week, with US fuel oil, WTI, Brent, and US unleaded gasoline all showing strength, while natural gas recorded a weekly decline. Crude oil retreated on Friday after four consecutive days of gains, with selling pressure appearing at higher levels for the first time. The main market theme was not demand expansion, but rather supply disruptions and shipping risks . Funds flowed into long positions in crude oil, but short-term volatility increased significantly.

The two giants of crude oil: WTI and Brent

Weekly Market Review

Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have shown a pattern of "four consecutive positive days followed by a single negative day." After four consecutive days of significant gains, WTI broke through the $100 mark and reached a new high, while Brent crude oil also strengthened and approached its previous resistance level. The latest candlestick is green with an upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels and representing the first pullback signal after this round of unilateral upward movement. Both WTI and Brent crude oil's MACD DIFF/DEA are positive and diverging upwards, indicating that the medium-term bullish trend remains intact. However, the prices have deviated significantly from the moving averages, increasing the risk of chasing the price higher in the short term.

Summary of Economic Data/Events

Attacks on Middle Eastern shipping routes have escalated, leading to a decrease in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; satellite images show smoke near Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. The International Energy Agency stated that Saudi crude oil supplies fell to their lowest level in over 30 years in August. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have strengthened their control over the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening another energy transport route. US diesel prices broke through $6 per gallon for the first time, affected by supply disruptions caused by the war with Iran and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on refining facilities. A major foreign media outlet reported that foreign ministers of Middle Eastern countries are attempting to reach a temporary agreement with Iran to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to give back their earlier gains.

Summary of Analyst/Institutional Views

Senior analysts at major overseas institutions believe that the factors that triggered the previous day's panic have eased, but whether the market can remain calm over the weekend remains a question. Negotiations regarding future arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz have the greatest impact on sentiment. Overall, supply-side risk premiums persist, but profit-taking at high levels and expectations of diplomatic easing are creating a tug-of-war.

American fuel and American unleaded gasoline

Weekly Market Review

US fuel oil prices rose 9.04% for the first time this week, while US unleaded gasoline prices rose 2.85% for the second consecutive week, following crude oil prices but with divergent trends. Fuel oil prices were more significantly supported by record diesel prices and refinery supply disruptions, while gasoline prices rose relatively moderately, reflecting limited upward pressure on end-user demand.

Summary of Economic Data/Events

The average price of diesel fuel across the United States broke through $6 per gallon for the first time, driven by supply disruptions and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on refining facilities. Diesel cracking and inventory pressures were the focus of attention this week.

Summary of Analyst/Institutional Views

Major overseas institutions generally view the strong diesel price as a direct signal of supply-side tightness, but there is disagreement on whether gasoline will follow suit. Market discussions are focused on refinery operating rates and export pace.

US natural gas

Weekly Market Review

US natural gas prices fell 3.82% for the second consecutive week, contrasting with crude oil prices. Prices failed to follow the overall strength of the energy sector, showing weakness throughout the week.

Summary of Economic Data/Events

There is currently no supply shock of the same magnitude as that of crude oil; weather and inventory factors are the main drivers, and the market is more cautious about pricing on the demand side.

Summary of Analyst/Institutional Views

Institutional opinions are divided, with some believing that natural gas and crude oil are no longer logically linked, while others are concerned about whether subsequent inventory changes can provide support. Overall, no unified bullish narrative has emerged. The core contradiction in the energy market this week is the clash between supply disruptions and profit-taking at high levels . Crude oil's two leading crude oil stocks are strong on the weekly chart, but the first bearish candle and its upper shadow indicate short-term divergence. The medium-term MACD structure remains bullish, but volatility risk has increased after prices deviated from the moving average. Record-breaking diesel prices reinforce the narrative of supply shortages, while the counter-trend weakness in natural gas suggests that the energy sector is not experiencing a comprehensive resonance. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of Middle East shipping, the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, the recovery of Saudi supply, and the disruptions to refining caused by the Russia-Ukraine situation.

QA module

Q: Crude oil closed lower after a sharp weekly gain. Does this indicate a trend reversal? A: It currently resembles the first pullback from a high after a one-sided upward trend. The MACD is still positive and diverging upwards, indicating the medium-term structure remains intact, but the price has deviated from the moving average, increasing short-term volatility risk. Whether it reverses depends on whether supply risks persist and whether diplomatic easing measures materialize. Q: Why is diesel stronger than gasoline? A: Diesel is more directly affected by supply disruptions. Record-high US diesel prices reflect tight fuel supply at refineries and in transportation. Gasoline's moderate gains indicate that end-user demand has not surged simultaneously, and the divergence between the two may continue. Q: Why did the Hormuz talks suppress oil prices? A: The market previously priced in shipping disruption risks. If a temporary agreement reduces uncertainty, the risk premium will be priced back. However, with the talks unresolved, weekend events could still amplify volatility. Q: Why is natural gas diverging from crude oil? A: Natural gas lacks a similar supply shock, with weather and inventory dominating. Crude oil is driven by geopolitics and shipping, while natural gas is more dependent on its own supply and demand, resulting in insufficient internal energy resonance. Q: What should we be monitoring most closely right now? A: The factors determining whether risk premiums will be given back or repriced include Middle East shipping attacks, Hormuz traffic volume, the restoration of Saudi pipelines and supplies, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation on refining facilities, and whether record diesel prices will be passed on to other oil products.