The US-Iran conflict, which began in 2025, has dragged on for over eight months. This military operation, originally aimed at rapidly changing the Iranian regime, shows no clear end in sight. This war presents a thought-provoking bipolar landscape: the US is deeply mired in serious strategic miscalculations, with geopolitical losses accumulating; however, the global economy, thanks to multiple resilience buffers, has unexpectedly withstood this round of Middle East geopolitical storms. In this ongoing interplay between strategic missteps and market self-healing, a core question becomes increasingly crucial: how long can the current fragile balance be maintained, and is the tipping point for global economic pressure quietly approaching?

Strategic Retrospective: A Complete Geopolitical Miscalculation

Scholars generally define the war against Iran as a major strategic blunder. University of Chicago scholar John Mearsheimer bluntly stated that it was "the most serious strategic miscalculation of our time." The US launched the war based on a false narrative of the Iranian nuclear threat, overestimated the effectiveness of air strikes, underestimated Iran's countermeasures, and failed to develop contingency plans for extreme scenarios such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or proxy attacks. To this day, all four of the US's core strategic objectives have failed: it has failed to overthrow the Iranian regime, failed to eradicate its nuclear enrichment and long-range missile capabilities, failed to cut off its support for regional armed groups, and severely weakened its credibility with allies in the Gulf region. After months of maneuvering, although Iran has suffered the impact of the war, its regime remains stable, its regional influence remains strong, and the US is trapped in a protracted, unprofitable stalemate.

The market's resilience exceeded expectations: the energy crisis did not erupt as anticipated.

This round of conflict was once described by International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol as "the most serious global energy security threat in human history." In the early stages of the conflict, institutions such as Goldman Sachs were extremely pessimistic, predicting that a disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz would drive oil prices to $200 per barrel, triggering global hyperinflation and a deep recession. However, the market's performance has been far more robust than expected. In April 2026, international oil prices only reached a peak of $126 per barrel, and current prices remain within the range of decades-long averages. A recent research report from JPMorgan Chase in October pointed out that the resilience of the crude oil market stems primarily from the global supply chain's ability to adapt and adjust: Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have effectively avoided a full-blown energy supply crisis by using diverse methods such as onshore pipelines, diverting shipping, and cross-border transshipment to fill the gaps.

The Source of Resilience: Four Mechanisms Supporting the Global Energy Landscape

Johns Hopkins University scholar John Rappelin aptly summarized the core logic of global economic resilience, which is also key to preventing the full-blown crisis: The global energy transition continues to deepen, significantly reducing economies' dependence on crude oil; the global supply chain is highly adaptable and flexibly repaired, quickly offsetting supply gaps in the Middle East; non-Middle Eastern oil-producing countries rapidly increased production to fill the gap, balancing global supply and demand; and countries released large-scale strategic and commercial oil reserves to stabilize the market. IEA data confirms the crucial role of reserves as a safety net; since the outbreak of the conflict, global oil reserves have been utilized by over 410 million barrels, becoming a core tool for short-term energy market stability. Meanwhile, production capacity in the Gulf region is steadily recovering; as of September 2026, the region's daily crude oil exports have recovered to 16.3 million barrels, with nearly 10 million barrels of crude oil transported via the Strait of Hormuz, safeguarding the basic foundation of global energy supply.

Hidden Risk: Structural Crisis in Refined Oil Products Amidst Stable Crude Oil Prices

Behind the stable surface oil prices lies a structural energy crisis overlooked by the market. The war has severely damaged refining facilities in the Gulf region, and the fixed adaptability of refining equipment to crude oil grades, making flexible adjustments difficult, has exacerbated the global supply-demand mismatch in refined oil products. JPMorgan Chase warned in September that this round of energy shocks is showing a clear divergence, with the refined oil market experiencing far greater tension than the crude oil market. Currently, US diesel, European natural gas, and refining margins continue to rise, highlighting the pressure of supply shortages. The structural supply-demand imbalance even forced the US to consider a diesel export ban, demonstrating that the current energy risk has shifted from crude oil supply to the supply of end-product refined oil products.

Unexpected Support: AI Investment Dividends Offset Downward Economic Pressure

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini pointed out that the current stable operation of the global economy is inseparable from the counter-trend support of explosive investment in the artificial intelligence industry. The capital boom in the AI sector has effectively offset the cost pressures and downside risks brought about by rising energy prices, becoming a new source of stable global growth. However, institutions generally warn that this dividend is not sustainable. The IMF predicts that global inflation will rise to 4.7% in 2026, with the pace of recovery continuing to slow. Goldman Sachs' scenario calculations show that high oil prices will drag down global GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points for the whole year. As the growth rate of AI investment gradually declines and the implementation of technology remains uncertain, this temporary economic buffer may gradually fade.

Core hidden danger: The global energy buffer has been severely overdrawn.

The biggest risk at present is not an immediate escalation of conflict, but rather that the global buffer against risk is nearing depletion. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser has solemnly warned that global commercial oil inventories have fallen to "alarmingly low levels," with readily available reserves extremely scarce, and it will take at least two years to repair the inventory lost in the conflict. Chevron executives have also cautioned that once inventories bottom out, the support level for oil prices will systematically rise, and the market's resilience will be significantly weakened. The IEA has explicitly stated that utilizing inventories is currently the last resort for regulating the energy market. Meanwhile, the weak domestic demand in China, which is suppressing global commodity prices, is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. Once inventories are depleted, demand recovers, and geopolitical tensions fluctuate, oil prices may experience a sharp rebound, completely disrupting the current stable pattern.

Compound risks: High debt cycle amplifies geoeconomic risks

Beyond energy risks, the global macroeconomic environment of high debt and high interest rates further amplifies market vulnerability. Major economies such as the US, UK, and France have high proportions of short-term debt, lacking buffers against inflation and interest rate fluctuations, resulting in extremely low economic tolerance for failure. The World Bank warns that if Middle East energy supply disruptions persist, global economic growth could fall to a low of 1.3% in 2026. Under the triple pressures of low growth, high inflation, and high debt, any escalation of geopolitical conflict could trigger a chain reaction of financial volatility and economic shocks.

Outlook: The trajectory of the conflict remains highly uncertain.

The US midterm elections will be a key turning point in this round of conflict. JPMorgan Chase predicts that even if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz partially resumes, geopolitical risk premiums will remain embedded in oil prices for a long time, making it difficult for the market to return to a stable normal. There are two core possible future scenarios: First, the US policy may become more aggressive after the election, escalating military strikes, potentially leading to Iranian retaliation that could destroy Middle Eastern oil infrastructure and trigger a new energy crisis; second, the US may recognize that the conflict is unsolvable and proactively de-escalate, resulting in a peaceful end to the conflict through an informal ceasefire.

In conclusion: Short-term resilience cannot mask long-term vulnerability.

Overall, the current global economy's resilience to a potential war with Iran is a temporary balance resulting from a combination of factors, including geopolitical missteps, market resilience, inventory depletion, and the benefits of AI. Behind the seemingly stable market lies a depleted buffer, a strained energy structure, and fragile macroeconomic fundamentals. Short-term stability is not a long-term solution. As various support mechanisms gradually fail, the global capacity to withstand geopolitical shocks is limited, and the probability of further risks is steadily increasing. The midterm elections may signify a crucial juncture in the overall international landscape, as the absence of electoral pressure may bring an end to excessive political maneuvering by the United States.