On Wednesday during Asian trading hours, the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against six major currencies, remained stable, trading around 102.20 after recording a gain of more than 0.5% on Tuesday. This level coincides perfectly with last Friday's reading, meaning that this rebound driven by CPI has brought the dollar index back to the starting point of this round of fluctuations. The dollar may regain its upward momentum as the latest U.S. inflation data reinforced market expectations of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a roughly 91% probability of a rate hike next month. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, exceeding the expected 0.3%, although this was a slowdown from September's 0.6% increase. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-over-month, unchanged from September and above the expected 0.2%. Due to last year's government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics omitted the annual data for October. However, the dollar may face headwinds as safe-haven demand weakens and hopes for a diplomatic solution to the U.S.-Iran conflict rise. U.S. President Trump suggested that further military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary; U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated at the G7 summit that large-scale warfare is no longer needed. Meanwhile, congressional Democrats are weighing the use of the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward a peaceful resolution. Fed Chair Goolsby's speech was noticeably more hawkish, with his FXS speech tracker rating at 8/10 , well above the historical average of 6.8/10, highlighting rising concerns about persistent price pressures. He emphasized that the latest CPI was "near troubling," that services inflation "has not declined," and that "we have a real inflation problem on our hands," indicating a clear inclination to consider further tightening if anti-inflation stalls. His comments on overheated prices and a "robust and steady" job market, coupled with the warning that "everything is always on the table," reinforced the risk that the Fed would be more determined to shift to additional tightening if inflation expectations rise. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose 1.69 points to 145.61 , confirming the stronger hawkish impulse consistent with the high speech rating. Well above the 100 neutral level, the index may be interpreted by the market as a marginal increase in the likelihood of further policy action to bring inflation back to target—a context that typically supports the dollar and is unfavorable to lower-yielding currencies. From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index is currently trading at 102.20 on the daily chart, with a neutral tone in the near term, hovering around recent closing levels. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen back to 56.49 , in the middle range, neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting that momentum after the previous overbought conditions is reaching equilibrium. On the upside, momentum is mildly limited by the mid-range RSI reading of 56.49, indicating limited directional confidence; while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 145.61 remains high, it represents a broader headwind rather than an immediate technical trigger. The US Dollar Index is likely to consolidate around 102 until a new catalyst drives a breakout. On the 4-hour chart, the exchange rate is consolidating sideways around 102.20. The previous daily gain of over 0.5% has been largely digested. In the short term, it's crucial to observe whether the 101.95 level can be held: if it holds, the consolidation is relatively strong, with room for another upward move; if it falls below 101.36, the structural support for this rebound will be weakened. Overall, in the current state of "no clear technical reference level," 102.20 itself constitutes a psychological and technical observation point—it is both last Friday's closing price and the starting point of this rebound. Whether it can hold above this level is key to determining whether the dollar will "restart its upward trend" or "reach the end of its rebound" after the CPI data. Editor's Summary: The core contradiction in the current US dollar index is the hedging between the hawkish pricing resulting from "higher-than-expected CPI, the Waller 50 basis point option, Goolsby 8/10, and the sentiment index rising to 145.61," and "diplomatic progress between the US and Iran weakening safe-haven demand." 102.20 is a symbolic level—it's both last Friday's closing price and the end or beginning of this rebound. Technically, the RSI has fallen to 56.49, with no clear support or resistance levels, indicating weak upward momentum. In the medium term, if a December rate hike (especially a 50 basis point one) is implemented and the sentiment index remains above 145, the dollar is expected to break through 102.20 and extend upwards; if there is a substantial breakthrough in US-Iran diplomacy and safe-haven demand continues to subside, the 102 area may become the ceiling for the rebound. Key attention should be paid to the magnitude of the Fed's December rate hike, the official description of the "breadth" of inflation, the progress of US-Iran negotiations, and whether subsequent inflation data continues to exceed expectations.