US October inflation data, exceeding market expectations, became the core trigger for the current strengthening of the US dollar. Several Federal Reserve officials subsequently adopted a more hawkish stance, and market expectations for further monetary tightening by the Fed rapidly increased. Traders have begun pricing in the risk of a one-off 50-basis-point rate hike in December, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% again on Wednesday, with the rising yields directly supporting the dollar. Fed Chair Waller's speech further reinforced tightening expectations, with his sentiment score significantly higher than historical averages. He explicitly stated that if core CPI remains at or above 0.3% month-on-month, a 50bp rate hike in December is possible; even with a slight improvement in inflation data, he favors at least a 25bp rate hike. He also pointed out that current policy constraints are less severe than previously anticipated, and real interest rates need to rise further. This statement boosted the FXS Fed Sentiment Index, with the reading rising sharply above the neutral threshold, continuing to benefit the US dollar and suppressing non-US currencies such as the euro and yen. Geopolitical risks have escalated again, with no signs of easing in the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The US military launched an attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, and Iran attacked the ship navigation system on Oman's Dhi Damar Island. Iranian military officials stated that this strategic waterway will only be opened under the orders of the Supreme Leader. Market expectations for a successful diplomatic resolution of the US-Iran conflict have cooled, leading to a surge of safe-haven funds into the US dollar, further solidifying the upward trend of the US dollar index. The current upward path is smoother. In the short term, the market will continue to track the US weekly initial jobless claims data. Meanwhile, public speeches by several FOMC officials and sudden geopolitical developments in the Middle East will provide new drivers for volatility in the US dollar index. On the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index maintains a short-term bullish structure, with the price breaking through the 102.40-102.50 resistance zone and holding above this level, opening up further upside potential. The current price continues to trade above the 4-hour 200-period exponential moving average, with the moving average system providing support and a clear bullish trend signal. If a pullback occurs, the first support level is around 101.55, corresponding to the 200-period EMA. This level is a key defensive position for the bulls, and a pullback to this area is likely to attract buying support, maintaining the overall upward trend. The short-term resistance level is around 103.30, with further upside potential targeting the previous high extension level. Editor's Summary : The US dollar is currently driven by two main factors: first, sticky inflation is repricing expectations of Fed rate hikes, leading to higher US Treasury yields; second, recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are continuously supporting safe-haven demand. Technically, the bullish structure remains intact, with a clear trend advantage. Risks to watch out for include: short-term over-speculation of inflation expectations, sudden easing of geopolitical tensions leading to rapid profit-taking, and weaker-than-expected employment data tonight causing a dollar pullback.