[Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe fell 1.7% year-on-year in April, a sharp drop of 25.5% compared to the previous month] ⑴ The average daily supply of natural gas from Russia's gas industry to Europe via the undersea TurkStream pipeline fell 1.7% year-on-year to 41 million cubic meters in April. Compared to March, the supply dropped sharply by 25.5%. ⑵ The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transport routes, causing prices to rise sharply. After Ukraine chose not to extend its five-year agreement with Moscow, which expires in January 2025, Turkey is now the only transit route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe. ⑶ Data shows that the total amount of Russian natural gas transported to Europe via TurkStream in April was 1.23 billion cubic meters, lower than the 1.25 billion cubic meters in April 2025. However, exports in the first four months of this year increased by 7.3% year-on-year to approximately 6.2 billion cubic meters. With the closure of pipelines in Ukraine, Russian gas exports to Europe plummeted by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters last year, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Against the backdrop of European gas inventories already at a five-year low, the contraction in Russian supply, coupled with the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, has further exacerbated pressures on European energy security. Global trade uncertainty triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric is also simultaneously pushing up energy price expectations.

[South Africa to Raise Gasoline Prices by 3.27 Rand per Liter in May, Diesel Wholesale Prices Surge by 6.19 Rand] ⑴ Data released by the South African government shows that gasoline prices will rise by 3.27 rand per liter in May, while wholesale diesel prices will increase by 6.19 rand per liter during the same period. This significant price adjustment reflects the transmission effect of continuously rising international energy costs. ⑵ Against the backdrop of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict with Iran and tightening global oil supplies, international oil prices have risen to a four-year high. As an energy importer, South Africa's fuel price adjustment will further push up domestic transportation and production costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global trade uncertainty triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric is also simultaneously affecting South Africa's import and export cost structure.

[If Energy Prices Remain High, Indonesian Inflation Faces Upside Risks] ⑴ Economist Wong Xian Yong stated in a report that the RHB (Republic of Indonesia) may raise its forecast for Indonesia's overall inflation rate this year from the baseline of 2.5% to 2.8%, and its core inflation rate forecast may also be revised upward from 2.3% to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects multiple driving factors. ⑵ He expects inflation to be driven by the following factors: rising transportation and production costs related to Middle East tensions, food supply risks from a potential El Niño phenomenon, and imported inflation caused by a weakening rupiah. Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Iran and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Indonesia, as an energy importer, is facing multiple cost squeezes. ⑶ Despite the rising risks, he expects the Central Bank of Indonesia to maintain its interest rate unchanged at its May meeting due to increasingly limited policy space caused by escalating Middle East tensions. Global trade uncertainty triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric is also simultaneously exacerbating the depreciation pressure on the rupiah and the risk of imported inflation.

[Dutch Gas Prices Rise Amid Hormuz Stalemate] ⑴ Dutch gas prices rose slightly on Monday as conflicting messages from the US and Iran over the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz left a significant amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies stuck in the area. Data showed that the TTF hub benchmark near-month contract rose €0.39 to €46.16 per megawatt-hour, after falling as low as €44.50 during the session. The UK market was closed on Monday for a public holiday. ⑵ Trump stated that the US would begin assisting in rescuing ships stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but the Iranian military warned US forces against entering the waterway. A senior analyst at Mind Energy stated that the market is closely watching developments in the Middle East and whether the US can forcefully reopen the strait. Analysts at ING Research noted that the market seems skeptical of Trump's "freedom plan." ⑶ Since the conflict began on February 28, only one oil tanker fully loaded with LNG has passed through this shipping chokepoint. In addition, Europe faces multiple pressures, including sluggish pipeline gas supplies from Norway due to maintenance, concerns about a hot and dry summer, and extremely low inventory levels. Data shows that EU gas storage capacity is at 33.4%, far below the approximately 40.3% of the same period last year. Trump's tariff rhetoric, coupled with geopolitical risks, has further exacerbated tensions in the European energy market.

[Foreign Exchange Options Market Appears Calm: Buy Low, Hedging Against the Storm] ⑴ At the outset of the Iranian conflict, the G10 foreign exchange options market reacted swiftly, with implied volatility surging as traders scrambled to price in uncertainty. However, this surge has since been completely reversed. The benchmark 1-month implied volatility for the euro against the dollar fell from 9.0 to below 6.0, the pound against the dollar from 9.25 to 6.6, and the Australian dollar against the dollar from 12.5 to 8.5, all returning to pre-conflict levels. This reflects a seemingly calm surface, with actual foreign exchange volatility remaining low within familiar ranges, coupled with the additional suppressive effect of the long weekend in Europe and the UK. ⑵ However, a deeper look reveals a more nuanced picture. Despite the ongoing Middle East stalemate, traders appear to be ignoring high oil prices and their broader economic impact—the question is how long this can last. Central banks are already signaling inflation concerns, and the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk that monetary policy responses will begin to shift. Subtle differences in timing or wording among central banks could trigger a divergence in currency movements and a meaningful reassessment of foreign exchange volatility risk. (3) Currently, implied volatility is suppressed at low levels, and options offer relatively cheap hedging opportunities for investors with foreign exchange exposure. If the geopolitical context deteriorates further or central bank rhetoric shifts, volatility could be rapidly and sharply reassessed. For businesses and investors, the current apparent calm may represent an attractive entry point to increase foreign exchange protection before the market becomes aware of latent risks. The uncertainty arising from Trump's tariff rhetoric and the conflict with Iran remains a core variable potentially driving a surge in volatility.

UAE Energy Minister: Strategic reserves have dwindled and need replenishment, therefore increased energy output is necessary.