Oil prices were little changed on Friday as Iraqi supply disruptions and tariff concerns created a tug-of-war between bulls and bears
2025-07-18 11:18:48
International oil prices showed a sideways trend in the Asian session on Friday (July 18), as supply concerns caused by the attack on oil fields in northern Iraq and demand concerns caused by the potential tariff policy of the United States counterbalanced each other. As of 11:15, Brent crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.15% to $69.44 per barrel, and WTI crude oil August futures fell slightly by 0.12% to $67.46 per barrel.
Supply-side support factors
Oil fields in Iraq's Kurdistan region were attacked by drones for the fourth consecutive day, causing more than half of the local production capacity (about 140,000-150,000 barrels per day) to be shut down, pushing both major benchmark oil prices up by $1 the previous day.
Summer travel season boosts demand: JPMorgan Chase data shows that global oil demand reached 105.2 million barrels per day in the first half of July, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day year-on-year
Downward pressure factors
1. The uncertain outlook for US tariff policy may suppress demand.
2. OPEC+ is expected to gradually withdraw from the production cut plan.
3. Cumulative decline this week: Both major crude oil futures prices exceeded 1%.
Market Outlook
Analysts at ING pointed out: "The current supply and demand in the oil market is tight, but supply is expected to gradually recover from the fourth quarter." It is worth noting that the Iraqi government announced on Thursday that it would resume oil exports from Kurdistan via Turkey, which may ease some supply concerns.
Tracking the attack
Energy officials said the attack may be linked to Iran-backed militias, but no group has claimed responsibility. Before the outage, normal production in the region was about 280,000 barrels per day.
At 11:17 Beijing time, Brent crude oil is currently trading at US$69.42 per barrel.
Supply-side support factors
Oil fields in Iraq's Kurdistan region were attacked by drones for the fourth consecutive day, causing more than half of the local production capacity (about 140,000-150,000 barrels per day) to be shut down, pushing both major benchmark oil prices up by $1 the previous day.
Summer travel season boosts demand: JPMorgan Chase data shows that global oil demand reached 105.2 million barrels per day in the first half of July, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day year-on-year
Downward pressure factors
1. The uncertain outlook for US tariff policy may suppress demand.
2. OPEC+ is expected to gradually withdraw from the production cut plan.
3. Cumulative decline this week: Both major crude oil futures prices exceeded 1%.
Market Outlook
Analysts at ING pointed out: "The current supply and demand in the oil market is tight, but supply is expected to gradually recover from the fourth quarter." It is worth noting that the Iraqi government announced on Thursday that it would resume oil exports from Kurdistan via Turkey, which may ease some supply concerns.
Tracking the attack
Energy officials said the attack may be linked to Iran-backed militias, but no group has claimed responsibility. Before the outage, normal production in the region was about 280,000 barrels per day.
At 11:17 Beijing time, Brent crude oil is currently trading at US$69.42 per barrel.
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