Gold is at a "triple top"! The situation in the Middle East is pouring cold water on it again. Can we buy at the bottom this time?
2025-07-25 18:20:45
The United States withdrew from the Doha ceasefire negotiations, and the situation in the Middle East was in turmoil again, but the gold market reacted calmly; the technical side showed multiple top pressures, and the upward momentum was weak; on Thursday (July 25) in the Asian session, spot gold continued to fall by 0.59% and traded around $3,348 per ounce, continuing the decline of last night. Geopolitical uncertainty and trend weakening signals are intertwined, and bargain hunting opportunities and risks need to be carefully weighed.
US withdraws from Doha talks, says Hamas does not want to end fighting <br/>According to Refinitiv, US Middle East envoy Witkov said on Thursday that the United States will withdraw from the Doha ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas because the United States believes that Hamas is not negotiating seriously. Witkov, who traveled to Europe on Wednesday to discuss the Gaza issue and the ceasefire agreement, said that Hamas's latest response in the Doha talks showed that it was unwilling to end the fighting. "Hamas does not seem to be acting in a coordinated manner or in good faith," Witkov said. "We will now consider other options to bring the hostages home and work to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza." Hamas later said that it was surprised by the remarks made by US envoy Witkov on the organization's position in the ceasefire negotiations, saying that it was eager to continue negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Hamas said that the mediator recognized the organization's "constructive and positive" position in the ceasefire negotiations.
Multiple countries hold urgent consultations on Gaza crisis, focusing on ceasefire and humanitarian aid <br/>British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Thursday that Britain, France, Germany and Italy will hold an emergency call on Friday to discuss the deteriorating situation in Gaza - more than 100 aid organizations have warned that large-scale famine is rapidly approaching. "The suffering and famine unfolding in Gaza are unspeakable and unjustifiable. Although the situation has long been serious, it has now reached a new low and continues to deteriorate. We are witnessing a humanitarian disaster." Starmer said. On Thursday, July 24, 2025, smoke and flames rose in the northern Gaza Strip after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from southern Israel. "We will discuss what measures can be taken immediately to stop the killing and get people much-needed food, while integrating all the necessary steps to build a lasting peace. We all agree that Israel urgently needs to change its strategy and should immediately allow much-needed aid to enter Gaza." Starmer said.
France, Britain and other countries call for the establishment of a Palestinian state and support the "two-state solution"
"It is essential to establish a Palestinian state, ensure its viability and enable it to contribute to the security of all people in the Middle East by accepting demilitarization and full recognition of Israel," French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday. "An immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages and massive humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza must be implemented. It is also necessary to ensure the demilitarization of Hamas and guarantee the security and reconstruction of Gaza," Macron continued. Macron said he would formally announce the decision at a UN meeting in September. Starmer also stated that the UK holds the same position. "We clearly believe that statehood is an inalienable right of the Palestinian people. A ceasefire will put us on the path to recognize the state of Palestine and achieve the 'two-state solution', providing peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis," Starmer said.
Israel strongly opposes French decision, condemns "rewarding terrorism"
Israel condemned the French decision, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying: "This move rewards terrorism and risks creating another Iranian proxy, like the one in Gaza. A Palestinian state established under these circumstances would be a launching pad for the destruction of Israel - not peaceful coexistence with it. Let's be clear: Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel, but a state that replaces Israel."
US and Israel deny weaponizing aid, refuted by UN and humanitarian organizations <br/>The US State Department has denied that Israel (and by extension the US) is using aid to Palestinians in Gaza for its own political ends, despite criticism from the UN and humanitarian organizations. "The responsibility for this humanitarian crisis lies with Hamas, and if they had released the hostages and laid down their arms, this conflict could have ended today," said Tommy Pigott, deputy spokesman for the US State Department, on Thursday. Israeli government spokesman David Menser said in an online briefing on Wednesday that there is "no famine" in Gaza. Menser pointed the finger at Hamas, saying that the food crisis in Gaza is "an artificial shortage deliberately created by Hamas." Pigott praised the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF), even though its distribution points are only in some parts of Gaza and aid organizations say the supplies provided through the GHF are far from enough to meet the urgent needs on the ground. The UN and other aid organizations refuse to work with the fund, citing concerns about its transparency and political impartiality.
Aid distribution is controversial, and casualties are a cause for concern.
“Since the GHF began distributing food on May 27, more than 1,000 people have been [affected]. People have been shot at GHF distribution points trying to collect food, and people have been shot and killed as UN convoys and other aid convoys entered Gaza and people tried to climb onto trucks,” said Ajis Sungai of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. “At the end of the day, what we are looking at is nearly 90 million meals being delivered to Gaza from a war zone, without the ability to loot that aid from Hamas,” he added. “We want the destruction in Gaza to end. That’s why we are committed to getting aid to those in need in a way that Hamas can’t use to fight wars. That commitment remains unchanged, and it’s the commitment of President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. That’s why we support GHF,” Pigott said. Pigott said the government continues to call on “other agencies to step up their involvement through this mechanism to get aid to the people of Gaza without it being looted by Hamas.” More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli gunfire near aid distribution sites in Gaza, according to UN data. Most of these distribution sites are run by GHF, which opened them on May 27. The IDF said in a statement earlier this month that its forces fired near crowds "to eliminate a direct threat to them," but did not elaborate on the threat. Israeli officials have long accused Hamas of seizing humanitarian supplies and selling them to finance military activities, charges Hamas denies.
Opportunities and risks in the gold market <br/>The United States withdrew from the Doha negotiations, saying that Hamas did not want to end the fighting. Hamas then expressed its desire to continue negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Although the overall tone has eased, the intraday news has not had a significant boost on gold. This shows that the momentum for gold prices to rise is insufficient.
There is a fundamental conflict between the "two-state solution" and Hamas' core demands. If France insists on the demilitarization of Hamas, it may become the fuse of geopolitical conflict, increase geopolitical uncertainty, and increase risk aversion in the short-term market, pushing gold prices up rapidly. If the situation does not develop further, the impact on gold will be limited.
The existence of countries such as Iran around Palestine that hold anti-US and anti-Israel strategies will push up the safe-haven premium of gold in the long term. We should pay attention to the marginal changes in the amount of aid from neighboring countries. Otherwise, the long-term impact has been digested by the previous rise in gold prices.
If the US or global economy recovers beyond expectations in the later stage of Trump's trade policy, the yield of interest-bearing assets will rise, and the opportunity cost of holding gold will rise, and the gold price will be significantly suppressed. For example, the US S&P Global PMI in July exceeded expectations, indicating that the economy is improving and boosting the US dollar index.
On Thursday (July 25) in the Asian session, spot gold continued its decline last night and fell 0.59% to trade around $3,348 per ounce.
Spot gold has attempted to break through 3430 three times in three months without success. The gold daily chart is temporarily developing towards a multiple top structure.
At the same time, the positive line on Monday, July 21, is regarded as a breakthrough of the key price of the 3361 triangle consolidation area. As of Friday, July 25, spot gold has given up all the gains since the breakthrough, and once fell to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and the rising trend line. Although there is still support at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, it is still possible to gamble on the uncertainty of global geopolitics at a low interest rate. However, an important node representing the weakening of gold is happening.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
At 18:01 Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $3,346.93 per ounce.
US withdraws from Doha talks, says Hamas does not want to end fighting <br/>According to Refinitiv, US Middle East envoy Witkov said on Thursday that the United States will withdraw from the Doha ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas because the United States believes that Hamas is not negotiating seriously. Witkov, who traveled to Europe on Wednesday to discuss the Gaza issue and the ceasefire agreement, said that Hamas's latest response in the Doha talks showed that it was unwilling to end the fighting. "Hamas does not seem to be acting in a coordinated manner or in good faith," Witkov said. "We will now consider other options to bring the hostages home and work to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza." Hamas later said that it was surprised by the remarks made by US envoy Witkov on the organization's position in the ceasefire negotiations, saying that it was eager to continue negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Hamas said that the mediator recognized the organization's "constructive and positive" position in the ceasefire negotiations.
Multiple countries hold urgent consultations on Gaza crisis, focusing on ceasefire and humanitarian aid <br/>British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Thursday that Britain, France, Germany and Italy will hold an emergency call on Friday to discuss the deteriorating situation in Gaza - more than 100 aid organizations have warned that large-scale famine is rapidly approaching. "The suffering and famine unfolding in Gaza are unspeakable and unjustifiable. Although the situation has long been serious, it has now reached a new low and continues to deteriorate. We are witnessing a humanitarian disaster." Starmer said. On Thursday, July 24, 2025, smoke and flames rose in the northern Gaza Strip after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from southern Israel. "We will discuss what measures can be taken immediately to stop the killing and get people much-needed food, while integrating all the necessary steps to build a lasting peace. We all agree that Israel urgently needs to change its strategy and should immediately allow much-needed aid to enter Gaza." Starmer said.
France, Britain and other countries call for the establishment of a Palestinian state and support the "two-state solution"
"It is essential to establish a Palestinian state, ensure its viability and enable it to contribute to the security of all people in the Middle East by accepting demilitarization and full recognition of Israel," French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday. "An immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages and massive humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza must be implemented. It is also necessary to ensure the demilitarization of Hamas and guarantee the security and reconstruction of Gaza," Macron continued. Macron said he would formally announce the decision at a UN meeting in September. Starmer also stated that the UK holds the same position. "We clearly believe that statehood is an inalienable right of the Palestinian people. A ceasefire will put us on the path to recognize the state of Palestine and achieve the 'two-state solution', providing peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis," Starmer said.
Israel strongly opposes French decision, condemns "rewarding terrorism"
Israel condemned the French decision, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying: "This move rewards terrorism and risks creating another Iranian proxy, like the one in Gaza. A Palestinian state established under these circumstances would be a launching pad for the destruction of Israel - not peaceful coexistence with it. Let's be clear: Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel, but a state that replaces Israel."
US and Israel deny weaponizing aid, refuted by UN and humanitarian organizations <br/>The US State Department has denied that Israel (and by extension the US) is using aid to Palestinians in Gaza for its own political ends, despite criticism from the UN and humanitarian organizations. "The responsibility for this humanitarian crisis lies with Hamas, and if they had released the hostages and laid down their arms, this conflict could have ended today," said Tommy Pigott, deputy spokesman for the US State Department, on Thursday. Israeli government spokesman David Menser said in an online briefing on Wednesday that there is "no famine" in Gaza. Menser pointed the finger at Hamas, saying that the food crisis in Gaza is "an artificial shortage deliberately created by Hamas." Pigott praised the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF), even though its distribution points are only in some parts of Gaza and aid organizations say the supplies provided through the GHF are far from enough to meet the urgent needs on the ground. The UN and other aid organizations refuse to work with the fund, citing concerns about its transparency and political impartiality.
Aid distribution is controversial, and casualties are a cause for concern.
“Since the GHF began distributing food on May 27, more than 1,000 people have been [affected]. People have been shot at GHF distribution points trying to collect food, and people have been shot and killed as UN convoys and other aid convoys entered Gaza and people tried to climb onto trucks,” said Ajis Sungai of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. “At the end of the day, what we are looking at is nearly 90 million meals being delivered to Gaza from a war zone, without the ability to loot that aid from Hamas,” he added. “We want the destruction in Gaza to end. That’s why we are committed to getting aid to those in need in a way that Hamas can’t use to fight wars. That commitment remains unchanged, and it’s the commitment of President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. That’s why we support GHF,” Pigott said. Pigott said the government continues to call on “other agencies to step up their involvement through this mechanism to get aid to the people of Gaza without it being looted by Hamas.” More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli gunfire near aid distribution sites in Gaza, according to UN data. Most of these distribution sites are run by GHF, which opened them on May 27. The IDF said in a statement earlier this month that its forces fired near crowds "to eliminate a direct threat to them," but did not elaborate on the threat. Israeli officials have long accused Hamas of seizing humanitarian supplies and selling them to finance military activities, charges Hamas denies.
Opportunities and risks in the gold market <br/>The United States withdrew from the Doha negotiations, saying that Hamas did not want to end the fighting. Hamas then expressed its desire to continue negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Although the overall tone has eased, the intraday news has not had a significant boost on gold. This shows that the momentum for gold prices to rise is insufficient.
There is a fundamental conflict between the "two-state solution" and Hamas' core demands. If France insists on the demilitarization of Hamas, it may become the fuse of geopolitical conflict, increase geopolitical uncertainty, and increase risk aversion in the short-term market, pushing gold prices up rapidly. If the situation does not develop further, the impact on gold will be limited.
The existence of countries such as Iran around Palestine that hold anti-US and anti-Israel strategies will push up the safe-haven premium of gold in the long term. We should pay attention to the marginal changes in the amount of aid from neighboring countries. Otherwise, the long-term impact has been digested by the previous rise in gold prices.
If the US or global economy recovers beyond expectations in the later stage of Trump's trade policy, the yield of interest-bearing assets will rise, and the opportunity cost of holding gold will rise, and the gold price will be significantly suppressed. For example, the US S&P Global PMI in July exceeded expectations, indicating that the economy is improving and boosting the US dollar index.
Technical Analysis
On Thursday (July 25) in the Asian session, spot gold continued its decline last night and fell 0.59% to trade around $3,348 per ounce.
Spot gold has attempted to break through 3430 three times in three months without success. The gold daily chart is temporarily developing towards a multiple top structure.
At the same time, the positive line on Monday, July 21, is regarded as a breakthrough of the key price of the 3361 triangle consolidation area. As of Friday, July 25, spot gold has given up all the gains since the breakthrough, and once fell to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and the rising trend line. Although there is still support at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, it is still possible to gamble on the uncertainty of global geopolitics at a low interest rate. However, an important node representing the weakening of gold is happening.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
At 18:01 Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $3,346.93 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
