Driven by economic concerns and increased supply, crude oil settlement price hits three-week low, with non-agricultural data to focus on next week
2025-07-26 07:34:34
Oil prices settled lower on Friday, with crude settling at a three-week low, as traders worried about negative economic news from the United States and signs of rising supply. However, optimism that a U.S. trade deal could boost global economic growth and oil demand in the future limited losses.
Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to settle at $68.44 a barrel, while WTI futures fell 1.3% to settle at $65.16. This was the lowest settlement price for Brent since July 4 and the lowest settlement price for WTI since June 30. For the week, Brent fell about 1% and WTI fell about 3%.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday, and EU officials and diplomats said the United States and Europe are expected to reach a framework trade deal by the weekend.
US President Trump said he will meet with the EU on Sunday, "We will see if we can reach an agreement with the EU on Sunday." Trump said the probability of reaching an agreement with the EU is 50%, and there may be 20 "stuck points" facing the agreement. He said that if an agreement is reached, the agreement with the EU will be the largest agreement.
A slew of data on Friday suggested the euro zone economy remains resilient amid widespread uncertainty caused by the global trade war. U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly fell in June, but shipments rose modestly, suggesting a sharp slowdown in business spending on equipment in the second quarter.
ING analysts wrote that the loosening of U.S. rules could increase Venezuela's oil exports by just over 200,000 barrels per day, a move welcomed by U.S. refiners that would ease tightness in the heavy crude market.
Earlier, it was reported that Chevron was in the process of regaining the ability to extract oil in Venezuela from the Trump administration. The details of the agreement are unclear, but it follows recent discussions between Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, and last week's prisoner swap that allowed the release of all 10 Americans detained by the Venezuelan government. "Chevron operates globally and complies with the laws and regulations that apply to its business, as well as the sanctions framework provided by the U.S. government, including in Venezuela," said Bill Turenne, a Chevron spokesman.
Maduro's government will not receive any royalties or taxes under the deal, according to two people familiar with the matter, but details are unclear. Earlier this year, the Trump administration revoked Chevron's license to drill for oil in Venezuela, which was obtained during the Biden era. The move was supported by hard-line critics of Maduro's government. But the move was criticized by oil interests and MAGA supporters such as Laura Loomer, who warned that the move would weaken U.S. energy influence in the region.
Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is ready to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licenses once U.S. President Donald Trump restores authorization for its partners to operate and export oil under swap deals, a PDVSA source said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that while diesel refining margins may fall slightly from their current extremely high levels, their prices will remain above their historical averages for a long time amid tight global processing capacity. The industrial fuel has performed strongly recently, with global inventories continuing to fall and financial demand surging, analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and others said in a report released Thursday. Unexpected outages at European refineries and shortages of crude oil, the feedstock for distillates, in Venezuela, Canada and OPEC+ have further exacerbated market tensions.
“We expect diesel margins to retreat modestly from current extremely high levels,” Goldman Sachs analysts said. But given continued structural tightness in refining capacity, prices will remain “above pre-pandemic averages.”
The OPEC+ panel is unlikely to change existing plans to increase production when it meets next Monday, four OPEC+ delegates said, noting that the producer group was eager to regain market share and that summer demand was helping to soak up excess oil.
A meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which includes senior ministers from OPEC+ member countries, is scheduled for 20:00 next Monday.
Four OPEC+ sources said the meeting was unlikely to change the group's existing output policy, which calls for eight members to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Another source said it was too early to draw conclusions. OPEC and the Saudi government communications office did not respond to requests for comment.
OPEC+, which accounts for about half of global oil production, has cut output for years to support the market, but this year it changed its strategy in an effort to regain market share and as U.S. President Donald Trump called on OPEC to increase output to curb gasoline prices.
According to Reuters earlier this month, three sources said that the eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries will hold a separate meeting on August 3 and may still agree to further increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. This means that by September, OPEC+ will lift the latest round of 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts, and the UAE will achieve a quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day ahead of schedule.
The JMMC meets every two months and can propose changes to OPEC+'s production policy. Despite OPEC+'s production increase, oil prices are still supported by strong summer demand and the fact that some member countries have not increased production to the level required by OPEC+. The oil market will also need to pay attention to non-agricultural data next week.
U.S. energy companies reduced the number of active oil and gas rigs this week, energy services company Baker Hughes said, marking the 12th decrease in 13 weeks.
Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to settle at $68.44 a barrel, while WTI futures fell 1.3% to settle at $65.16. This was the lowest settlement price for Brent since July 4 and the lowest settlement price for WTI since June 30. For the week, Brent fell about 1% and WTI fell about 3%.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday, and EU officials and diplomats said the United States and Europe are expected to reach a framework trade deal by the weekend.
US President Trump said he will meet with the EU on Sunday, "We will see if we can reach an agreement with the EU on Sunday." Trump said the probability of reaching an agreement with the EU is 50%, and there may be 20 "stuck points" facing the agreement. He said that if an agreement is reached, the agreement with the EU will be the largest agreement.
A slew of data on Friday suggested the euro zone economy remains resilient amid widespread uncertainty caused by the global trade war. U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly fell in June, but shipments rose modestly, suggesting a sharp slowdown in business spending on equipment in the second quarter.
ING analysts wrote that the loosening of U.S. rules could increase Venezuela's oil exports by just over 200,000 barrels per day, a move welcomed by U.S. refiners that would ease tightness in the heavy crude market.
Earlier, it was reported that Chevron was in the process of regaining the ability to extract oil in Venezuela from the Trump administration. The details of the agreement are unclear, but it follows recent discussions between Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, and last week's prisoner swap that allowed the release of all 10 Americans detained by the Venezuelan government. "Chevron operates globally and complies with the laws and regulations that apply to its business, as well as the sanctions framework provided by the U.S. government, including in Venezuela," said Bill Turenne, a Chevron spokesman.
Maduro's government will not receive any royalties or taxes under the deal, according to two people familiar with the matter, but details are unclear. Earlier this year, the Trump administration revoked Chevron's license to drill for oil in Venezuela, which was obtained during the Biden era. The move was supported by hard-line critics of Maduro's government. But the move was criticized by oil interests and MAGA supporters such as Laura Loomer, who warned that the move would weaken U.S. energy influence in the region.
Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is ready to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licenses once U.S. President Donald Trump restores authorization for its partners to operate and export oil under swap deals, a PDVSA source said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that while diesel refining margins may fall slightly from their current extremely high levels, their prices will remain above their historical averages for a long time amid tight global processing capacity. The industrial fuel has performed strongly recently, with global inventories continuing to fall and financial demand surging, analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and others said in a report released Thursday. Unexpected outages at European refineries and shortages of crude oil, the feedstock for distillates, in Venezuela, Canada and OPEC+ have further exacerbated market tensions.
“We expect diesel margins to retreat modestly from current extremely high levels,” Goldman Sachs analysts said. But given continued structural tightness in refining capacity, prices will remain “above pre-pandemic averages.”
The OPEC+ panel is unlikely to change existing plans to increase production when it meets next Monday, four OPEC+ delegates said, noting that the producer group was eager to regain market share and that summer demand was helping to soak up excess oil.
A meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which includes senior ministers from OPEC+ member countries, is scheduled for 20:00 next Monday.
Four OPEC+ sources said the meeting was unlikely to change the group's existing output policy, which calls for eight members to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Another source said it was too early to draw conclusions. OPEC and the Saudi government communications office did not respond to requests for comment.
OPEC+, which accounts for about half of global oil production, has cut output for years to support the market, but this year it changed its strategy in an effort to regain market share and as U.S. President Donald Trump called on OPEC to increase output to curb gasoline prices.
According to Reuters earlier this month, three sources said that the eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries will hold a separate meeting on August 3 and may still agree to further increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. This means that by September, OPEC+ will lift the latest round of 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts, and the UAE will achieve a quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day ahead of schedule.
The JMMC meets every two months and can propose changes to OPEC+'s production policy. Despite OPEC+'s production increase, oil prices are still supported by strong summer demand and the fact that some member countries have not increased production to the level required by OPEC+. The oil market will also need to pay attention to non-agricultural data next week.
U.S. energy companies reduced the number of active oil and gas rigs this week, energy services company Baker Hughes said, marking the 12th decrease in 13 weeks.
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