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2025-07-28 17:31:27
[Hawks speak out! ECB's Kazimir: September rate cut is almost impossible, inflation risk remains] ⑴ ECB President Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut interest rates again and will not take action in September unless there are major economic surprises. ⑵ He made it clear that he would only consider cutting interest rates if there were signs of "clear collapse" in the labor market. ⑶ Although the US-EU trade agreement has reduced uncertainty, Kazimir believes that its specific impact on inflation remains unclear. ⑷ He believes that it is unlikely that inflation will continue to be below the ECB's 2% target, and inflation risks do not tend to be downward. ⑸ This assessment is consistent with the view previously revealed by sources that the threshold for a September rate cut is very high after the rate cut to 2% since June 2024. ⑹ Although other officials are concerned that inflation may fall below 2% next year, Kazimir is convinced that this is only a temporary phenomenon. ⑺ His tough stance suggests that the ECB will continue to be cautious in the short term and that market expectations for rate cuts may need to be readjusted.
