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2025-07-28 18:12:21
[The Bank of Japan is expected to remain on hold this week. Will the tariff "black swan" delay rate hikes? ] ⑴ ANZ Research predicts that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at this week's monetary policy meeting. ⑵ Economist Tom Kenny pointed out that political uncertainty surrounding Japan's trade and domestic policies remains high. ⑶ He believes that it is unclear how the 15% tariff imposed by the United States on Japanese goods exported to the United States will affect Japan's economy and inflation. ⑷ At the same time, the ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the Senate will make Japan's domestic policy making more complicated. ⑸ Despite this, the bank expects the Bank of Japan to raise its fiscal year consumer price index (CPI) forecast to reflect the impact of rising food prices. ⑹ In addition, given the tightening labor market and high corporate confidence, Tom Kenny believes that the Bank of Japan still has room to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October this year and April next year. ⑺ The focus of the market is whether external uncertainties will delay the Bank of Japan's rate hike process
