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2025-07-28 18:23:32
【Demand is weak, but Asian naphtha refining margins have risen instead of falling. What is the mystery behind this?】 ⑴ Asian naphtha refining margins rose slightly on Monday to $61.97 per ton, up from $58.57 on the previous trading day. ⑵ The reason for the increase in margins is that despite the weakening crude oil prices, the spread structure between naphtha's spot and near-month contracts has narrowed to zero, indicating that market expectations have improved. ⑶ In contrast, the gasoline cracking spread remained stable at about $7 per barrel. ⑷ India's crude oil imports in June fell 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest since February, reflecting weak demand. ⑸ At the same time, Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in September for the second consecutive month, which may put pressure on the supply side. ⑹ Trading activity in the market as a whole remains light, and although naphtha margins have improved, the gasoline and naphtha spot markets lack strong momentum. ⑺ This divergence suggests that despite weak macro demand, some market participants may be looking for arbitrage opportunities
