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2025-07-28 21:16:46
[On the eve of the Fed meeting, "dissenting" voices emerge, and the prospect of a rate cut in September may be impacted? ] ⑴ The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, which is consistent with the current data that does not support a rate cut. ⑵ However, it is worth noting that there may be voting differences at this meeting, and Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller may become a key "dissenter". ⑶ Waller previously said that a 25 basis point rate cut in July was reasonable given the risks to economic growth and the labor market. ⑷ Another board member, Michelle Bowman, also expressed a similar view, saying that if inflation pressure is under control, she will support a rate cut in July. ⑸ If both directors vote in favor of a rate cut, it will be the first time since December 1993 that two Fed directors have disagreed. ⑹ Although the market's expectations for a September rate cut remain around 60%-65%, analysts pointed out that the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff remarks triggering inflation will keep the Fed on the sidelines. ⑺ Unless the employment data deteriorates significantly, the market's pricing of a September rate cut may be biased, and traders need to be alert to potential risks.
