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2025-07-28 21:52:19
【Gulf economies rebound strongly: Oil production increases and diversification goes hand in hand, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE exceeds expectations】 ⑴ According to the latest Reuters survey, driven by increased oil production and economic diversification strategies, most Gulf economies will grow faster in 2025 than in 2024. ⑵ Despite oil production cuts since the end of 2022, oil prices have remained sluggish overall due to geopolitical tensions and US trade uncertainties, which has had an impact on OPEC revenue. ⑶ OPEC countries have increased oil production since April this year to regain market share and actively developed tourism to diversify revenue. ⑷ The survey predicts that Saudi Arabia's GDP will grow by 3.8% in 2025, far higher than 1.3% in 2024, reflecting the government's firm commitment to diversified transformation. ⑸ The UAE's economic performance is particularly outstanding, with GDP expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, both higher than the forecast in the April survey. ⑹ Qatar's GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 5.4% in 2026, a 13-year high, thanks to its large-scale liquefied natural gas expansion project. ⑺ In addition, Oman and Kuwait are expected to grow by 2.8% and 3.0% in 2025, respectively, a three-year high, while Bahrain's growth is expected to slow slightly to 2.9%. ⑻ Although Middle Eastern economies are largely unaffected by Trump's tariff rhetoric, inflation in the region is expected to remain mild, with inflation estimated at between 1.0% and 2.5% in 2025. ⑼ The Swiss franc weakened against the G-8 currencies, but performed relatively strongly among regional currencies, which effectively eased the pressure of rising import costs.
