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2025-07-29 09:39:44
[RMB central parity rate fell for three consecutive days, and the downward space may be limited] 1. China Foreign Exchange Trading Center lowered the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar by 44 basis points to 7.1511 yuan on Tuesday, hitting a new low since July 21, achieving three consecutive declines. It is worth noting that the quotation is 380 basis points stronger than the Reuters forecast, showing that under the background of the strong rebound of the US dollar, the regulatory authorities are sending a signal of maintaining stability through the central parity rate. Market analysts believe that the short-term downward space of the RMB is limited, and the subsequent trend needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. 2. Market data shows that the onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 yuan the previous day and closed at 7.1787 yuan in the night session; the offshore RMB was last reported at 7.1803 yuan. The previous Reuters-calculated central parity forecast value was 7.1891 yuan, which was significantly different from the actual quotation, indicating that the current "counter-cyclical factor" regulatory effect has not yet appeared. 3. Lu Zhe, chief economist of Soochow Securities, pointed out that the strong signal transmitted by the regulatory authorities through the central parity rate is being gradually digested by the market, and the gradual appreciation trend of the RMB may accelerate. It is expected that the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB in August may drop to the range of 7.10-7.15. 4. Market focus: Senior Chinese and US economic and trade officials will hold talks in Stockholm on Monday, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and important US economic data will be released this week, and the Bank of Japan policy meeting is about to be held. 5. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index remained stable near a two-week high in the Asian session. After the US and Europe reached a trade agreement, the euro fluctuated downward. If it falls below the 50-day moving average, it may end the recent rebound trend.
