Crude oil trading reminder: Geopolitical situation triggers supply-side concerns, pushing oil prices upward, maintaining short-term box fluctuations
2025-07-29 10:10:47
Oil prices continued to rise amid rising geopolitical risks. US President Trump recently made a tough statement, demanding that Russia end the conflict with Ukraine within 10 to 12 days, otherwise it will face "secondary sanctions".
Market concerns about possible disruptions to Russia's crude oil exports pushed Brent crude oil prices close to $70 a barrel, recording the largest single-day increase in two weeks at 2.3%. During the same period, U.S. WTI crude oil also stabilized around $67.
According to market research, the new round of sanctions against Russia just announced by the European Union has included Indian oil refinery Nayara Energy in the hit list, further highlighting the high-pressure situation of the international community on Russia's energy chain.
The uncertainty of geopolitics and trade policy is intertwined, making market sentiment complicated. In addition to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, investors are also paying close attention to the August 1 trade policy deadline set by the United States and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early August, which will decide on the September crude oil production increase plan.
The industry generally expects that although crude oil inventories in some parts of the world are currently tight and consumption is strong during the peak season in the northern hemisphere, if OPEC+ continues to increase production, the pressure of oversupply by the end of the year will gradually emerge.
Analysts at energy research firm PetroLogistics pointed out: "The current rise in crude oil prices is driven by short-term supply disruption risks and seasonal consumption, but this pattern may reverse in the fourth quarter."
Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia is intensifying. In a speech on Monday, Trump expressed his disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin for not responding to his call for a ceasefire. It is reported that the United States initially set a 50-day ceasefire period for Russia, which was supposed to end on September 2, but now the United States plans to significantly shorten the period to 10-12 days and increase pressure measures.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows a mild upward trend. The current price is running steadily above the 100-day moving average, indicating that bullish momentum still exists.
The 4-day relative strength index (RSI) remained between 55 and 60, not reaching the overbought range, suggesting that there is still room for further gains. If oil prices successfully break through the key resistance level of $68.30, it will open up space to the $70 mark;
On the other hand, if it falls below the support level of $65.20, it may fall into a sideways fluctuation or even a correction in the short term. Overall, the technical chart resonates with geopolitical factors, supporting the bullish trend of oil prices.
Editor's opinion:
In the short term, geopolitical risks, the expansion of EU sanctions and the adjustment of US trade policies have put the crude oil market in a sensitive stage with multiple interference factors. Although the Trump administration's move to increase pressure on Russia has not actually affected crude oil exports, its symbolic significance is enough to disturb market sentiment in a short period of time.
In the medium term, if OPEC+ continues to maintain its high-production strategy and the peak season in the northern hemisphere ends, the oil market may return to an imbalance between supply and demand.
Market concerns about possible disruptions to Russia's crude oil exports pushed Brent crude oil prices close to $70 a barrel, recording the largest single-day increase in two weeks at 2.3%. During the same period, U.S. WTI crude oil also stabilized around $67.
According to market research, the new round of sanctions against Russia just announced by the European Union has included Indian oil refinery Nayara Energy in the hit list, further highlighting the high-pressure situation of the international community on Russia's energy chain.
The uncertainty of geopolitics and trade policy is intertwined, making market sentiment complicated. In addition to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, investors are also paying close attention to the August 1 trade policy deadline set by the United States and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early August, which will decide on the September crude oil production increase plan.
The industry generally expects that although crude oil inventories in some parts of the world are currently tight and consumption is strong during the peak season in the northern hemisphere, if OPEC+ continues to increase production, the pressure of oversupply by the end of the year will gradually emerge.
Analysts at energy research firm PetroLogistics pointed out: "The current rise in crude oil prices is driven by short-term supply disruption risks and seasonal consumption, but this pattern may reverse in the fourth quarter."
Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia is intensifying. In a speech on Monday, Trump expressed his disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin for not responding to his call for a ceasefire. It is reported that the United States initially set a 50-day ceasefire period for Russia, which was supposed to end on September 2, but now the United States plans to significantly shorten the period to 10-12 days and increase pressure measures.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows a mild upward trend. The current price is running steadily above the 100-day moving average, indicating that bullish momentum still exists.
The 4-day relative strength index (RSI) remained between 55 and 60, not reaching the overbought range, suggesting that there is still room for further gains. If oil prices successfully break through the key resistance level of $68.30, it will open up space to the $70 mark;
On the other hand, if it falls below the support level of $65.20, it may fall into a sideways fluctuation or even a correction in the short term. Overall, the technical chart resonates with geopolitical factors, supporting the bullish trend of oil prices.
Editor's opinion:
In the short term, geopolitical risks, the expansion of EU sanctions and the adjustment of US trade policies have put the crude oil market in a sensitive stage with multiple interference factors. Although the Trump administration's move to increase pressure on Russia has not actually affected crude oil exports, its symbolic significance is enough to disturb market sentiment in a short period of time.
In the medium term, if OPEC+ continues to maintain its high-production strategy and the peak season in the northern hemisphere ends, the oil market may return to an imbalance between supply and demand.
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