Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-07-29 13:20:28
[Institution: Global trade shocks are quietly emerging, but emerging market stocks are still overweight] As the August 1 deadline for tariff increases approaches, financial markets have largely turned a blind eye to tariff uncertainties, and most stock indexes have even hit new highs. But Lombard Odier economists pointed out that a shock to global trade is quietly emerging. The United States' actual tariff of 15% is the highest level since the late 1930s. Forecasts show that the evolving tariff pattern will lead to a significant slowdown in the global economy, although it is not enough to trigger a recession. Although stock market volatility remains low, volatility is expected to gradually increase in the third quarter. In terms of asset allocation, the agency still overweights emerging market stocks because of their lower valuations and more resilient earnings growth.
