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2025-07-29 16:04:36
The Swedish Central Bank faces a policy dilemma: a weak economy and high inflation coexist. (1) Sweden's GDP grew only slightly by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, following a revised contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter, significantly below the Riksbank's forecast of 0.9% and market expectations of 0.3%. Year-on-year growth remained flat at 0.9%, also below the Riksbank's expectations. (2) June CPIF inflation rose by 2.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the Riksbank's forecast of 2.4%, reinforcing market expectations of an unchanged interest rate at the August meeting. (3) Analysts believe that EUR/SEK is likely to continue its decline, with key support levels at 11.1271 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 11.0635 (50% retracement), with targets at 11.1150 and 11.0320.
